Compendium › Reversion › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.69%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,632.98
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$10,002.51
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:50:35

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 11.4/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 9.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,798
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,002.51
Current Value
$9,632.98
Period P&L
$-369.53
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.32%
Worst Trade
-2.01%
Avg Trade Return
-0.95%
Avg Hold Time
11d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$77,248.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-369.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-369.53
Gross Return
-3.69%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,002.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $367.39 27 $9,919.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:45pm ET $365.82 27 $9,877.14 $9,960.25 $-42.26
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $357.64 27 $9,656.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $350.45 27 $9,462.15 $9,766.26 $-193.99
(-2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $350.73 27 $9,469.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $351.85 27 $9,499.95 $9,796.50 +$30.24
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET $348.70 28 $9,763.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $342.86 28 $9,600.08 $9,632.98 $-163.52
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,632.98
Net Profit/Loss: $-367.02
Total Return: -3.67%
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