Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:15:34

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 30.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 30.5

30-Day Momentum

19
+2.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.1 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,851
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,184.24
Current Value
$12,697.11
Period P&L
$2,512.87
Max Drawdown
-26.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
10 / 3
Best Trade
+10.00%
Worst Trade
-10.28%
Avg Trade Return
+1.91%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$262,683.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,512.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,512.87
Gross Return
+24.67%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.67%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,184.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $119.23 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:50am ET $120.57 0 $0.00 $10,298.12 +$113.88
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET $122.53 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 9:40am ET $124.53 0 $0.00 $10,466.12 +$168.00
(+1.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $118.74 88 $10,449.12
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $119.19 88 $10,488.72 $10,505.72 +$39.60
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET $125.30 83 $10,399.90
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET $137.83 83 $11,439.89 $11,545.71 +$1,039.99
(+10.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:35am ET $135.65 85 $11,530.67
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $148.35 85 $12,610.17 $12,625.21 +$1,079.50
(+9.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $156.89 80 $12,551.20
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET $145.77 80 $11,661.60 $11,735.61 $-889.60
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $141.05 83 $11,707.15
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:50pm ET $148.77 83 $12,347.91 $12,376.37 +$640.76
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $153.70 80 $12,296.00
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $141.91 80 $11,353.20 $11,433.57 $-942.80
(-7.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $148.07 77 $11,401.39
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $156.46 77 $12,047.42 $12,079.60 +$646.03
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET $160.14 75 $12,010.50
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 11:15am ET $169.03 75 $12,677.25 $12,746.35 +$666.75
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $173.63 73 $12,674.99
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET $183.20 73 $13,373.60 $13,444.96 +$698.61
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $224.49 59 $13,244.91
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $201.41 59 $11,883.30 $12,083.35 $-1,361.61
(-10.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET $196.07 61 $11,960.28
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET $206.13 61 $12,574.03 $12,697.11 +$613.76
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,697.11
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,697.11
Total Return: +26.97%
Back to Reversion