Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:54:13

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.8/35
Total Return
10.4/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 31.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 31.3

30-Day Momentum

6
-6.2%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.0 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,901
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,569.51
Current Value
$11,694.46
Period P&L
$1,124.95
Max Drawdown
-10.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+6.70%
Worst Trade
-14.16%
Avg Trade Return
+1.02%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$321,874.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,124.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,124.95
Gross Return
+10.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,569.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET $317.85 32 $10,171.20
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $300.71 32 $9,622.72 $9,886.63 $-548.48
(-5.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $312.77 31 $9,695.87
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 12:25pm ET $329.50 31 $10,214.50 $10,405.26 +$518.63
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $349.37 29 $10,131.73
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $368.85 29 $10,696.65 $10,970.18 +$564.92
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET $370.24 29 $10,736.96
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $390.09 29 $11,312.61 $11,545.83 +$575.65
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $396.64 29 $11,502.56
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $417.35 29 $12,103.01 $12,146.27 +$600.44
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $424.93 28 $11,898.18
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 11:55am ET $394.82 28 $11,054.96 $11,303.05 $-843.22
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET $399.10 28 $11,174.80
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $421.58 28 $11,804.24 $11,932.49 +$629.44
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:30am ET $415.88 28 $11,644.64
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:30am ET $434.76 28 $12,173.28 $12,461.13 +$528.64
(+4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $425.13 29 $12,328.77
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $418.94 29 $12,149.26 $12,281.62 $-179.51
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held
10 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:35am ET $417.01 29 $12,093.15
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $441.23 29 $12,795.67 $12,984.15 +$702.53
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $457.67 28 $12,814.76
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $488.34 28 $13,673.52 $13,842.91 +$858.76
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $478.07 28 $13,385.96
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $410.39 28 $11,490.78 $11,947.73 $-1,895.18
(-14.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $404.00 29 $11,715.95
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $375.69 29 $10,895.01 $11,126.79 $-820.94
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET $379.76 29 $11,012.90
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:15am ET $399.33 29 $11,580.57 $11,694.46 +$567.67
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,694.46
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,694.46
Total Return: +16.94%
Back to Reversion