Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 00:22:37

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 13.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

2
-6.6%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,899.16
Current Value
$8,976.54
Period P&L
$-922.62
Max Drawdown
-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+9.09%
Worst Trade
-7.61%
Avg Trade Return
-0.70%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$288,850.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-922.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$-922.62
Gross Return
-9.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,899.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $205.69 50 $10,284.50
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $190.04 50 $9,502.00 $9,507.16 $-782.50
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET $185.43 51 $9,456.93
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:35pm ET $172.34 51 $8,789.34 $8,839.57 $-667.59
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET $161.40 54 $8,715.60
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $169.83 54 $9,170.82 $9,294.79 +$455.22
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $174.30 53 $9,237.90
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $184.94 53 $9,801.82 $9,858.71 +$563.92
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $172.01 57 $9,804.57
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $183.92 57 $10,483.44 $10,537.58 +$678.87
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $189.90 55 $10,444.50
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:20pm ET $199.77 55 $10,987.35 $11,080.43 +$542.85
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $209.50 52 $10,894.00
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 1:25pm ET $197.73 52 $10,281.96 $10,468.39 $-612.04
(-5.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $187.15 55 $10,293.03
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $199.40 55 $10,967.27 $11,142.64 +$674.25
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
9 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:55am ET $200.04 55 $11,002.20
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $185.40 55 $10,196.73 $10,337.17 $-805.47
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
10 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $211.90 48 $10,171.20
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 9:45am ET $196.68 48 $9,440.49 $9,606.46 $-730.71
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
11 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $196.61 48 $9,437.28
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $185.66 48 $8,911.78 $9,080.96 $-525.50
(-5.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
12 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $178.35 50 $8,917.50
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:10am ET $187.32 50 $9,366.00 $9,529.46 +$448.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $176.94 53 $9,377.82
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $164.50 53 $8,718.50 $8,870.14 $-659.32
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $164.17 54 $8,865.18
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:20am ET $152.37 54 $8,227.98 $8,232.94 $-637.20
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $157.30 52 $8,179.60
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $171.60 52 $8,923.20 $8,976.54 +$743.60
(+9.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,976.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,023.46
Total Return: -10.23%
Back to Reversion