Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:53:51

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 11.4/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 9.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-7.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,900
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,118.71
Current Value
$9,167.79
Period P&L
$-950.92
Max Drawdown
-10.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+5.40%
Worst Trade
-7.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.75%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$195,900.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-950.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$-950.92
Gross Return
-9.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,118.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $123.81 80 $9,904.80
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:05am ET $130.05 80 $10,403.72 $10,506.43 +$498.92
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET $133.86 78 $10,441.08
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $131.35 78 $10,245.30 $10,310.65 $-195.78
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $122.76 83 $10,189.08
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $113.93 83 $9,456.60 $9,578.17 $-732.48
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $117.28 81 $9,499.68
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $123.45 81 $9,999.45 $10,077.94 +$499.77
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $123.64 81 $10,014.84
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $123.85 81 $10,031.45 $10,094.55 +$16.61
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $123.79 81 $10,026.99
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $115.02 81 $9,316.62 $9,384.18 $-710.37
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 12:30pm ET $114.52 81 $9,276.12
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $120.70 81 $9,776.70 $9,884.76 +$500.58
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $120.74 81 $9,779.54
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:35am ET $116.12 81 $9,405.80 $9,511.03 $-373.73
(-3.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $114.22 83 $9,480.67
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $118.47 83 $9,833.01 $9,863.37 +$352.34
(+3.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $117.56 83 $9,757.48
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $109.18 83 $9,061.90 $9,167.79 $-695.58
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,167.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-832.21
Total Return: -8.32%
Back to Reversion