Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:55:26

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

60
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.9/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
11.5/15
Profit Factor
3.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 60.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 60.2

30-Day Momentum

22
+4.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.1 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,902
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,649.30
Current Value
$18,466.39
Period P&L
$3,817.09
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
14 / 7
Best Trade
+9.59%
Worst Trade
-8.49%
Avg Trade Return
+1.36%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$703,027.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,817.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,817.09
Gross Return
+26.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+26.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $14,649.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET $411.02 35 $14,385.70
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $381.95 35 $13,368.25 $13,631.85 $-1,017.45
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $367.71 37 $13,605.45
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $340.44 37 $12,596.28 $12,622.68 $-1,009.17
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 11:50am ET $316.86 39 $12,357.73
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET $332.77 39 $12,978.03 $13,242.97 +$620.29
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $340.91 38 $12,954.43
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET $358.14 38 $13,609.32 $13,897.86 +$654.89
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
40m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $377.93 36 $13,605.48
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $414.18 36 $14,910.66 $15,203.04 +$1,305.18
(+9.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET $410.40 37 $15,184.80
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $436.00 37 $16,132.00 $16,150.24 +$947.20
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET $449.54 35 $15,733.73
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET $474.45 35 $16,605.92 $17,022.44 +$872.20
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $475.27 35 $16,634.62
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $499.12 35 $17,469.20 $17,857.02 +$834.58
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $502.27 35 $17,579.45
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $527.40 35 $18,459.00 $18,736.57 +$879.55
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $511.03 36 $18,397.08
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $537.09 36 $19,335.42 $19,674.91 +$938.34
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
25m held
11 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $651.88 30 $19,556.40
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:35am ET $692.23 30 $20,766.77 $20,885.28 +$1,210.37
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $772.13 27 $20,847.51
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 12:35pm ET $715.30 27 $19,313.23 $19,351.00 $-1,534.28
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
13 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:30am ET $787.68 24 $18,904.32
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $731.76 24 $17,562.24 $18,008.92 $-1,342.08
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
14 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:00am ET $715.19 25 $17,879.75
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $664.38 25 $16,609.38 $16,738.54 $-1,270.38
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
15 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET $706.67 23 $16,253.32
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:40am ET $746.97 23 $17,180.35 $17,665.57 +$927.03
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:50am ET $906.06 19 $17,215.14
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $956.39 19 $18,171.41 $18,621.84 +$956.27
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $1,022.36 18 $18,402.48
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $1,073.82 18 $19,328.76 $19,548.12 +$926.28
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,013.98 19 $19,265.62
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET $935.16 19 $17,767.95 $18,050.45 $-1,497.67
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:00pm ET $942.97 19 $17,916.52
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $862.89 19 $16,394.91 $16,528.84 $-1,521.61
(-8.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET $989.45 16 $15,831.20
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,055.02 16 $16,880.32 $17,577.96 +$1,049.12
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET $1,068.41 16 $17,094.61
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:25am ET $1,123.94 16 $17,983.04 $18,466.39 +$888.43
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,466.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,466.39
Total Return: +84.66%
Back to Reversion