Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:58:46

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.9/35
Total Return
13.4/25
Win Rate
9.2/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 46.0/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 42.1

30-Day Momentum

13
+2.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.7 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,902
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,248.82
Current Value
$14,010.40
Period P&L
$3,761.58
Max Drawdown
-10.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+7.46%
Worst Trade
-7.80%
Avg Trade Return
+2.08%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$337,226.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,761.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,761.58
Gross Return
+36.70%
Net Return (after fees)
+36.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,248.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $169.28 62 $10,495.36
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:05am ET $157.26 62 $9,750.12 $9,844.85 $-745.24
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $156.70 62 $9,715.40
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET $145.43 62 $9,016.66 $9,146.11 $-698.74
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $158.17 57 $9,015.69
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $167.74 57 $9,561.18 $9,691.60 +$545.49
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $169.73 57 $9,674.61
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $157.54 57 $8,979.50 $8,996.49 $-695.11
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $160.71 55 $8,839.15
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $170.40 55 $9,372.00 $9,529.34 +$532.85
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $166.61 57 $9,496.77
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $175.35 57 $9,995.23 $10,027.80 +$498.46
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $173.73 57 $9,902.61
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET $182.50 57 $10,402.50 $10,527.69 +$499.89
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET $182.13 57 $10,381.41
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $195.71 57 $11,155.47 $11,301.75 +$774.06
(+7.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.7d held
9 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 2:55pm ET $204.14 55 $11,227.57
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $214.37 55 $11,790.35 $11,864.53 +$562.78
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
10 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $213.04 55 $11,717.20
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 2:30pm ET $223.72 55 $12,304.60 $12,451.93 +$587.40
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5h held
11 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $234.95 52 $12,217.14
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:10am ET $246.81 52 $12,834.12 $13,068.91 +$616.98
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:40am ET $243.58 53 $12,909.74
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:40am ET $256.08 53 $13,571.98 $13,731.15 +$662.24
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:40am ET $251.99 54 $13,607.46
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $265.49 54 $14,336.46 $14,460.15 +$729.00
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $288.97 50 $14,448.50
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $266.42 50 $13,321.25 $13,332.90 $-1,127.25
(-7.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $265.09 50 $13,254.50
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $278.64 50 $13,932.00 $14,010.40 +$677.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,010.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,010.40
Total Return: +40.10%
Back to Reversion