ARM Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 33 trades in period
+18.05%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,697.11
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$10,755.26
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
30.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 30.5
30-Day Momentum
19
+2.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.1
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,241
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,755.26
Current Value
$12,697.11
Period P&L
$1,941.85
Max Drawdown
-26.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
19 /
14
Best Trade
+10.00%
Worst Trade
-10.28%
Avg Trade Return
+0.60%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$262,683.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,941.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,941.85
Gross Return
+18.05%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.05%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,755.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:25am ET | $157.58 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 1:15pm ET | $159.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,863.04 |
+$107.78 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $150.49 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:30am ET | $147.20 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,626.16 |
$-236.88 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $143.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $140.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,376.97 |
$-249.19 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $135.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $138.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,544.17 |
+$167.20 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $135.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 2:45pm ET | $137.27 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,655.51 |
+$111.34 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET | $138.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:10pm ET | $135.43 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,404.71 |
$-250.80 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:35am ET | $129.91 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 9:50am ET | $131.51 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,533.11 |
+$128.40 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $130.68 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $127.24 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,258.31 |
$-274.80 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $136.21 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:25am ET | $133.34 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,043.06 |
$-215.25 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $128.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:50am ET | $124.74 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,778.30 |
$-264.76 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:00am ET | $120.29 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:00am ET | $119.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,733.35 |
$-44.95 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $112.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $112.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,675.73 |
$-57.62 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $109.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $111.21 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,821.81 |
+$146.08 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $108.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,547.76 |
$-274.05 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $104.06 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $108.36 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,938.61 |
+$390.85 (+4.1%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $113.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $115.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,109.13 |
+$170.52 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $117.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,223.48 |
+$114.35 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.69 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $109.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,016.91 |
$-206.57 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $106.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $104.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,789.99 |
$-226.92 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $102.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $106.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,184.24 |
+$394.25 (+4.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $120.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,298.12 |
+$113.88 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $122.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $124.53 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,466.12 |
+$168.00 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.74 | 88 | $10,449.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $119.19 | 88 | $10,488.72 | $10,505.72 |
+$39.60 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $125.30 | 83 | $10,399.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.83 | 83 | $11,439.89 | $11,545.71 |
+$1,039.99 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $135.65 | 85 | $11,530.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 85 | $12,610.17 | $12,625.21 |
+$1,079.50 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $156.89 | 80 | $12,551.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $145.77 | 80 | $11,661.60 | $11,735.61 |
$-889.60 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $141.05 | 83 | $11,707.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:50pm ET | $148.77 | 83 | $12,347.91 | $12,376.37 |
+$640.76 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $153.70 | 80 | $12,296.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $141.91 | 80 | $11,353.20 | $11,433.57 |
$-942.80 (-7.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $148.07 | 77 | $11,401.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.46 | 77 | $12,047.42 | $12,079.60 |
+$646.03 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $160.14 | 75 | $12,010.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $169.03 | 75 | $12,677.25 | $12,746.35 |
+$666.75 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $173.63 | 73 | $12,674.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $183.20 | 73 | $13,373.60 | $13,444.96 |
+$698.61 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.49 | 59 | $13,244.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.41 | 59 | $11,883.30 | $12,083.35 |
$-1,361.61 (-10.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.07 | 61 | $11,960.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $206.13 | 61 | $12,574.03 | $12,697.11 |
+$613.76 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,697.11
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,697.11
Total Return:
+26.97%