Compendium › Reversion › JNJ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
JNJ
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-3.14%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,787.41
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$10,105.07
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:23:24

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 69%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 10.9/100
× Confidence 0.69 = 7.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (69%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,744
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
134 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,105.07
Current Value
$9,787.41
Period P&L
$-317.66
Max Drawdown
-2.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.36

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+2.98%
Worst Trade
-2.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.79%
Avg Hold Time
10.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$79,000.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-317.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-317.66
Gross Return
-3.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 134 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,105.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 1:50pm ET $241.90 41 $9,917.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:50pm ET $238.24 41 $9,767.84 $9,955.22 $-149.85
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 3:15pm ET $235.01 42 $9,870.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:15pm ET $242.02 42 $10,165.05 $10,249.85 +$294.63
(+3.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $244.26 41 $10,014.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $237.98 41 $9,757.18 $9,992.37 $-257.48
(-2.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $234.67 42 $9,856.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $229.79 42 $9,651.18 $9,787.41 $-204.96
(-2.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,787.41
Net Profit/Loss: $-212.59
Total Return: -2.13%
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