MARA Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 46 trades in period
+42.51%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,414.44
Current Value
72%
Win Rate
$8,711.10
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
27.4/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 27.0
30-Day Momentum
26
+6.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 35.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,441
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,711.10
Current Value
$12,414.44
Period P&L
$3,703.34
Max Drawdown
-27.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
33 /
13
Best Trade
+9.76%
Worst Trade
-8.84%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
18.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$305,675.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,703.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,703.34
Gross Return
+42.51%
Net Return (after fees)
+42.51%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,711.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $16.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:35am ET | $16.49 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,528.08 |
$-183.02 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $15.43 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,642.88 |
+$114.80 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 9:55am ET | $15.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,729.59 |
+$86.71 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $13.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:45am ET | $14.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,858.74 |
+$129.15 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $12.32 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:45am ET | $12.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,965.72 |
+$106.98 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $11.61 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $11.79 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,104.68 |
+$138.96 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET | $11.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET | $10.95 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,918.93 |
$-185.75 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:10am ET | $10.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 10:30am ET | $9.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,738.53 |
$-180.40 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $11.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,202.27 |
+$463.74 (+5.3%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.08 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:50am ET | $11.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,389.02 |
+$186.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $12.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,559.52 |
+$170.50 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $12.09 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:25am ET | $11.83 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,355.86 |
$-203.66 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 12:40pm ET | $12.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 12:55pm ET | $12.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,451.24 |
+$95.38 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 1:35pm ET | $12.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,549.99 |
+$98.75 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $11.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 1:30pm ET | $11.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,661.10 |
+$111.11 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET | $10.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 11:20am ET | $10.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,442.56 |
$-218.54 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:05pm ET | $9.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:40pm ET | $9.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,553.54 |
+$110.98 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:35am ET | $9.64 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $9.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,595.66 |
+$42.12 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $10.06 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $9.86 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,402.76 |
$-192.90 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $10.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $10.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,588.76 |
+$186.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $10.98 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:40pm ET | $11.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,715.35 |
+$126.59 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:55am ET | $10.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:30am ET | $10.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,836.85 |
+$121.50 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,059.16 |
+$222.31 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $10.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $10.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,171.63 |
+$112.47 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.02 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $10.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,278.20 |
+$106.57 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,400.96 |
+$122.76 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $9.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,509.58 |
+$108.62 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.14 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $8.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,285.87 |
$-223.71 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $7.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,423.78 |
+$137.91 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,743.46 |
+$319.68 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $7.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $8.04 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,906.18 |
+$162.72 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $7.32 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $7.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,665.12 |
$-241.06 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.45 | 1,261 | $10,661.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.28 | 1,261 | $11,702.08 | $11,705.44 |
+$1,040.32 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.16 | 1,277 | $11,697.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.52 | 1,277 | $10,873.66 | $10,881.78 |
$-823.66 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $8.56 | 1,271 | $10,879.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.01 | 1,271 | $11,451.71 | $11,453.98 |
+$572.20 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.76 | 1,308 | $11,451.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $8.14 | 1,308 | $10,640.58 | $10,643.02 |
$-810.96 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $8.75 | 1,216 | $10,640.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 1,216 | $9,728.00 | $9,731.02 |
$-912.00 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $7.74 | 1,256 | $9,727.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:45pm ET | $8.15 | 1,256 | $10,230.12 | $10,233.42 |
+$502.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 1,313 | $10,228.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 1,313 | $10,838.82 | $10,843.97 |
+$610.55 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $8.90 | 1,217 | $10,837.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $8.24 | 1,217 | $10,027.96 | $10,034.54 |
$-809.43 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 1,064 | $10,033.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.92 | 1,064 | $10,552.75 | $10,553.77 |
+$519.23 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.31 | 1,134 | $10,551.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $9.87 | 1,134 | $11,192.58 | $11,194.48 |
+$640.71 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 990 | $11,190.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 990 | $11,800.80 | $11,804.62 |
+$610.14 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $11.81 | 999 | $11,803.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 999 | $10,759.23 | $10,760.67 |
$-1,043.95 (-8.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.73 | 1,003 | $10,757.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.47 | 1,003 | $11,504.41 | $11,507.90 |
+$747.23 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $11.99 | 959 | $11,503.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.94 | 959 | $12,409.75 | $12,414.44 |
+$906.54 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,414.44
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,414.44
Total Return:
+24.14%