Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:52:17

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.7 neutral
20d Trend
+4.0%
5d Trend
-8.3%
EMA20 Dist
-2.4%
ATR%
4.3%
Range Pos
42%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
3.1/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 18.7/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 16.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,972
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,466.33
Current Value
$9,836.79
Period P&L
$-1,629.54
Max Drawdown
-6.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
6 / 9
Best Trade
+7.12%
Worst Trade
-8.46%
Avg Trade Return
-0.92%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$241,465.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,629.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,629.54
Gross Return
-14.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 META Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,466.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:55am ET $629.51 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:55am ET $621.08 0 $0.00 $11,314.59 $-151.74
(-1.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $605.91 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $603.00 0 $0.00 $11,262.30 $-52.29
(-0.5%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $669.95 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:20am ET $679.23 0 $0.00 $11,410.78 +$148.48
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET $655.47 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $662.09 0 $0.00 $11,523.24 +$112.46
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $647.48 17 $11,007.16
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $631.76 17 $10,739.92 $11,256.00 $-267.24
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:55pm ET $623.94 18 $11,230.84
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET $578.54 18 $10,413.81 $10,438.97 $-817.03
(-7.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $537.22 19 $10,207.18
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $565.61 19 $10,746.59 $10,978.38 +$539.41
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $565.70 19 $10,748.21
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $606.00 19 $11,514.00 $11,744.17 +$765.79
(+7.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:05pm ET $629.10 18 $11,323.80
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $663.20 18 $11,937.60 $12,357.97 +$613.80
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 2:00pm ET $671.12 18 $12,080.16
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $671.69 18 $12,090.42 $12,368.23 +$10.26
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $674.40 18 $12,139.11
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $617.33 18 $11,111.87 $11,340.99 $-1,027.24
(-8.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $609.52 18 $10,971.41
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $599.37 18 $10,788.66 $11,158.24 $-182.75
(-1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
13 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 12:35pm ET $619.67 18 $11,154.06
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $609.60 18 $10,972.80 $10,976.98 $-181.26
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
14 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $629.76 17 $10,705.92
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $580.11 17 $9,861.87 $10,132.93 $-844.05
(-7.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $588.70 17 $10,007.90
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $571.28 17 $9,711.76 $9,836.79 $-296.14
(-3.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,836.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-163.21
Total Return: -1.63%
Back to Reversion