MRNA Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 32 trades in period
-14.72%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,826.92
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,350.40
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
13
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
9.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
13.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 13.3
30-Day Momentum
3
-8.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,741
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,350.40
Current Value
$8,826.92
Period P&L
$-1,523.48
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
19 /
13
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-7.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$157,881.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,523.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,523.48
Gross Return
-14.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.72%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,350.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 11:15am ET | $23.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:40am ET | $23.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,459.40 |
+$109.00 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $25.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:55am ET | $26.10 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,578.88 |
+$119.48 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $24.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $24.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,744.18 |
+$165.30 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET | $23.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 2:15pm ET | $22.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,524.63 |
$-219.55 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $24.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET | $24.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,299.39 |
$-225.24 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $28.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:05am ET | $29.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,402.34 |
+$102.95 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:55am ET | $34.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:20am ET | $33.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,184.98 |
$-217.36 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:45am ET | $31.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:50pm ET | $31.11 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,976.98 |
$-208.00 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.74 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $35.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,088.42 |
+$111.44 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $34.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,867.54 |
$-220.88 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $32.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,662.44 |
$-205.10 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $40.26 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $40.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,785.20 |
+$122.76 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:55am ET | $39.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $39.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,901.76 |
+$116.56 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET | $53.24 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $53.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,014.61 |
+$112.85 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.63 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.01 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,688.99 |
$-325.62 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $46.81 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $47.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,795.55 |
+$106.56 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $45.80 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $46.41 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,926.10 |
+$130.55 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $44.24 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,676.49 |
$-249.61 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $43.02 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,799.07 |
+$122.58 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $40.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $41.40 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,913.79 |
+$114.72 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $39.61 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $40.25 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,073.77 |
+$159.98 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $43.39 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:40pm ET | $42.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,823.21 |
$-250.56 (-2.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $39.03 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $39.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,932.37 |
+$109.16 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $42.54 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $43.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,068.67 |
+$136.30 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.90 | 197 | $10,027.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.50 | 197 | $10,539.50 | $10,580.87 |
+$512.20 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.77 | 193 | $10,570.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $50.85 | 193 | $9,815.01 | $9,825.27 |
$-755.60 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.26 | 191 | $9,790.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:45pm ET | $53.97 | 191 | $10,308.75 | $10,343.36 |
+$518.09 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.80 | 195 | $10,296.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $49.00 | 195 | $9,555.00 | $9,602.36 |
$-741.00 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $50.65 | 189 | $9,572.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.99 | 189 | $9,637.11 | $9,666.62 |
+$64.26 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $52.49 | 184 | $9,658.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.50 | 184 | $10,212.00 | $10,220.46 |
+$553.84 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $54.17 | 188 | $10,183.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $50.37 | 188 | $9,469.56 | $9,506.06 |
$-714.40 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $48.28 | 196 | $9,461.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $44.81 | 196 | $8,782.76 | $8,826.92 |
$-679.14 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,826.92
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,173.08
Total Return:
-11.73%