Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:53:51

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
5.1/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 20.0/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 15.3

30-Day Momentum

0
-8.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,019
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,275.00
Current Value
$9,607.85
Period P&L
$-1,667.15
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
5 / 9
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-7.23%
Avg Trade Return
-1.08%
Avg Hold Time
6.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$230,648.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,667.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,667.15
Gross Return
-14.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,275.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $451.40 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 11:30am ET $456.02 0 $0.00 $11,385.92 +$110.92
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $432.00 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:00am ET $422.79 0 $0.00 $11,146.33 $-239.59
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $405.70 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $397.48 0 $0.00 $10,924.30 $-222.03
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET $408.84 26 $10,629.84
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET $399.74 26 $10,393.24 $10,687.70 $-236.60
(-2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $396.21 26 $10,301.46
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 11:45am ET $368.34 26 $9,576.84 $9,963.08 $-724.62
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $359.38 27 $9,703.13
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 12:40pm ET $372.74 27 $10,063.98 $10,323.93 +$360.85
(+3.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $369.69 27 $9,981.63
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $392.55 27 $10,598.85 $10,941.15 +$617.22
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET $425.93 25 $10,648.25
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $424.41 25 $10,610.25 $10,903.15 $-38.00
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 2:10pm ET $426.78 25 $10,669.50
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 2:10pm ET $415.58 25 $10,389.50 $10,623.15 $-280.00
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:40am ET $407.64 26 $10,598.64
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $429.97 26 $11,179.22 $11,203.73 +$580.58
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
11 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $413.81 27 $11,172.87
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $439.48 27 $11,865.96 $11,896.82 +$693.09
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $446.97 26 $11,621.22
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $414.64 26 $10,780.64 $11,056.24 $-840.58
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $411.23 26 $10,691.98
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:05am ET $382.38 26 $9,941.88 $10,306.14 $-750.10
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 2:35pm ET $398.56 25 $9,964.04
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 11:55am ET $370.63 25 $9,265.75 $9,607.85 $-698.29
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,607.85
Net Profit/Loss: $-392.15
Total Return: -3.92%
Back to Reversion