MU Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 36 trades in period
+59.02%
Last 6 Months Return
$18,466.39
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$11,612.29
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026
60
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
23.9/35
Total Return
16.1/25
Win Rate
11.5/15
Profit Factor
3.5/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
60.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 60.2
30-Day Momentum
22
+4.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 30.1
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,168
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,612.29
Current Value
$18,466.39
Period P&L
$6,854.10
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
27 /
9
Best Trade
+9.59%
Worst Trade
-8.49%
Avg Trade Return
+1.48%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$783,561.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,854.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,854.10
Gross Return
+59.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+59.02%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,612.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $286.25 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,265.89 |
+$653.60 (+5.7%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $328.58 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $321.60 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,007.63 |
$-258.26 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $379.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $384.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,152.09 |
+$144.46 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $393.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,273.77 |
+$121.68 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $426.31 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $431.81 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,427.93 |
+$154.16 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $415.17 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $420.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,594.88 |
+$166.95 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $418.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $425.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,813.58 |
+$218.70 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $403.66 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $408.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $12,962.40 |
+$148.82 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $367.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $373.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,180.80 |
+$218.40 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $372.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $377.50 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,352.30 |
+$171.50 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $414.93 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $419.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,494.38 |
+$142.08 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $397.77 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $404.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $13,704.24 |
+$209.86 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $385.52 | 35 | $13,493.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $357.86 | 35 | $12,525.10 | $12,736.14 |
$-968.10 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $410.74 | 31 | $12,732.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 31 | $13,842.74 | $13,845.94 |
+$1,109.80 (+8.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 32 | $13,568.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $449.11 | 32 | $14,371.36 | $14,649.30 |
+$803.36 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $411.02 | 35 | $14,385.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.95 | 35 | $13,368.25 | $13,631.85 |
$-1,017.45 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $367.71 | 37 | $13,605.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $340.44 | 37 | $12,596.28 | $12,622.68 |
$-1,009.17 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:50am ET | $316.86 | 39 | $12,357.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET | $332.77 | 39 | $12,978.03 | $13,242.97 |
+$620.29 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 38 | $12,954.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $358.14 | 38 | $13,609.32 | $13,897.86 |
+$654.89 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $377.93 | 36 | $13,605.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 36 | $14,910.66 | $15,203.04 |
+$1,305.18 (+9.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $410.40 | 37 | $15,184.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $436.00 | 37 | $16,132.00 | $16,150.24 |
+$947.20 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET | $449.54 | 35 | $15,733.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $474.45 | 35 | $16,605.92 | $17,022.44 |
+$872.20 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $475.27 | 35 | $16,634.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $499.12 | 35 | $17,469.20 | $17,857.02 |
+$834.58 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 35 | $17,579.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.40 | 35 | $18,459.00 | $18,736.57 |
+$879.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $511.03 | 36 | $18,397.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $537.09 | 36 | $19,335.42 | $19,674.91 |
+$938.34 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $651.88 | 30 | $19,556.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $692.23 | 30 | $20,766.77 | $20,885.28 |
+$1,210.37 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $772.13 | 27 | $20,847.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $715.30 | 27 | $19,313.23 | $19,351.00 |
$-1,534.28 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $787.68 | 24 | $18,904.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $731.76 | 24 | $17,562.24 | $18,008.92 |
$-1,342.08 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $715.19 | 25 | $17,879.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET | $664.38 | 25 | $16,609.38 | $16,738.54 |
$-1,270.38 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $706.67 | 23 | $16,253.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $746.97 | 23 | $17,180.35 | $17,665.57 |
+$927.03 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $906.06 | 19 | $17,215.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $956.39 | 19 | $18,171.41 | $18,621.84 |
+$956.27 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,022.36 | 18 | $18,402.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $1,073.82 | 18 | $19,328.76 | $19,548.12 |
+$926.28 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,013.98 | 19 | $19,265.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $935.16 | 19 | $17,767.95 | $18,050.45 |
$-1,497.67 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $942.97 | 19 | $17,916.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $862.89 | 19 | $16,394.91 | $16,528.84 |
$-1,521.61 (-8.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $989.45 | 16 | $15,831.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,055.02 | 16 | $16,880.32 | $17,577.96 |
+$1,049.12 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,068.41 | 16 | $17,094.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,123.94 | 16 | $17,983.04 | $18,466.39 |
+$888.43 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,466.39
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,466.39
Total Return:
+84.66%