Compendium › Reversion › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 35 trades in period

+62.30%
Last 6 Months Return
$19,674.91
Current Value
74%
Win Rate
$12,122.78
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

67
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
27.3/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
12.0/15
Profit Factor
6.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 68.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 67.4

30-Day Momentum

70
+41.6%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
6
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 94.3 Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,315
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
133 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,122.78
Current Value
$19,674.91
Period P&L
$7,552.13
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
26 / 9
Best Trade
+9.59%
Worst Trade
-7.42%
Avg Trade Return
+1.50%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$386,435.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,552.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,552.13
Gross Return
+62.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+62.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 133 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 35 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $12,122.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET $233.23 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET $235.93 0 $0.00 $12,260.39 +$137.61
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET $242.62 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 10:30am ET $244.34 0 $0.00 $12,346.39 +$86.00
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET $233.50 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 10:25am ET $236.68 0 $0.00 $12,511.75 +$165.36
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $242.44 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $231.28 0 $0.00 $11,942.33 $-569.42
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:35am ET $232.47 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 11:00am ET $227.51 0 $0.00 $11,689.37 $-252.96
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $204.18 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:55am ET $206.85 0 $0.00 $11,841.56 +$152.19
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET $232.39 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET $227.65 0 $0.00 $11,604.56 $-237.00
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET $227.22 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET $236.77 0 $0.00 $12,091.69 +$487.13
(+4.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET $249.45 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET $244.35 0 $0.00 $11,847.13 $-244.56
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 10:40am ET $228.94 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 1:40pm ET $224.34 0 $0.00 $11,612.29 $-234.84
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $286.25 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $302.59 0 $0.00 $12,265.89 +$653.60
(+5.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET $328.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:50am ET $321.60 0 $0.00 $12,007.63 $-258.26
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET $379.78 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET $384.44 0 $0.00 $12,152.09 +$144.46
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $389.13 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET $393.05 0 $0.00 $12,273.77 +$121.68
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET $426.31 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:45am ET $431.81 0 $0.00 $12,427.93 +$154.16
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $415.17 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $420.93 0 $0.00 $12,594.88 +$166.95
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $418.51 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET $425.80 0 $0.00 $12,813.58 +$218.70
(+1.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $403.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET $408.46 0 $0.00 $12,962.40 +$148.82
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $367.34 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET $373.58 0 $0.00 $13,180.80 +$218.40
(+1.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $372.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $377.50 0 $0.00 $13,352.30 +$171.50
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET $414.93 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:40am ET $419.37 0 $0.00 $13,494.38 +$142.08
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $397.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $404.12 0 $0.00 $13,704.24 +$209.86
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $385.52 35 $13,493.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET $357.86 35 $12,525.10 $12,736.14 $-968.10
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET $410.74 31 $12,732.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $446.54 31 $13,842.74 $13,845.94 +$1,109.80
(+8.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 32 $13,568.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:15am ET $449.11 32 $14,371.36 $14,649.30 +$803.36
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
45m held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET $411.02 35 $14,385.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $381.95 35 $13,368.25 $13,631.85 $-1,017.45
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $367.71 37 $13,605.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $340.44 37 $12,596.28 $12,622.68 $-1,009.17
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
28 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 11:50am ET $316.86 39 $12,357.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET $332.77 39 $12,978.03 $13,242.97 +$620.29
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $340.91 38 $12,954.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET $358.14 38 $13,609.32 $13,897.86 +$654.89
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
40m held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $377.93 36 $13,605.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $414.18 36 $14,910.66 $15,203.04 +$1,305.18
(+9.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
31 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET $410.40 37 $15,184.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $436.00 37 $16,132.00 $16,150.24 +$947.20
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
32 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET $449.54 35 $15,733.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET $474.45 35 $16,605.92 $17,022.44 +$872.20
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
33 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $475.27 35 $16,634.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $499.12 35 $17,469.20 $17,857.02 +$834.58
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
34 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $502.27 35 $17,579.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $527.40 35 $18,459.00 $18,736.57 +$879.55
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
35 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $511.03 36 $18,397.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $537.09 36 $19,335.42 $19,674.91 +$938.34
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
25m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,674.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,674.91
Total Return: +96.75%
Back to Reversion