NIO Reversion's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 34 trades in period
+2.56%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,666.65
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$8,450.72
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
12.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 12.2
30-Day Momentum
29
+7.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 39.5
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,993
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,450.72
Current Value
$8,666.65
Period P&L
$215.93
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
20 /
14
Best Trade
+8.43%
Worst Trade
-7.36%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
20.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$159,133.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$215.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$215.93
Gross Return
+2.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.56%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,450.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 3:25pm ET | $7.23 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,087.00 |
$-363.72 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $6.82 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $6.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,223.87 |
+$136.87 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.43 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 12:55pm ET | $6.50 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,313.33 |
+$89.46 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $6.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,040.38 |
$-272.95 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $6.08 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:45am ET | $6.21 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,205.63 |
+$165.25 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $5.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 1:20pm ET | $5.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,289.13 |
+$83.50 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:40am ET | $5.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:35pm ET | $5.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,111.83 |
$-177.30 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.50 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 11:00am ET | $5.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,220.61 |
+$108.78 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:25am ET | $5.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 3:40pm ET | $5.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,326.79 |
+$106.18 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $5.35 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:45am ET | $5.24 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,147.85 |
$-178.94 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:40am ET | $4.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,308.07 |
+$160.22 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:35am ET | $5.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,399.42 |
+$91.35 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET | $5.03 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,500.88 |
+$101.46 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.16 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:50am ET | $5.05 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,324.93 |
$-175.95 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $4.87 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,157.33 |
$-167.60 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.69 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $4.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,257.38 |
+$100.05 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.77 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $7,932.31 |
$-325.07 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $7,872.49 |
$-59.82 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.58 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $4.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $7,958.49 |
+$86.00 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.67 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.67 | 0 | $0.00 | $7,954.23 |
$-4.26 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $4.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $4.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,081.28 |
+$127.05 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $7,885.15 |
$-196.13 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $4.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.12 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,549.81 |
+$664.66 (+8.4%) |
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,685.05 |
+$135.24 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,810.91 |
+$125.86 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.57 | 1,583 | $8,809.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $5.88 | 1,583 | $9,308.04 | $9,309.56 |
+$498.65 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $6.04 | 1,541 | $9,307.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $5.61 | 1,541 | $8,648.09 | $8,650.01 |
$-659.55 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.75 | 1,505 | $8,649.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET | $5.34 | 1,505 | $8,039.86 | $8,040.64 |
$-609.37 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.07 | 1,323 | $8,037.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.42 | 1,323 | $8,491.41 | $8,494.83 |
+$454.19 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.13 | 1,385 | $8,490.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $6.45 | 1,385 | $8,926.33 | $8,931.11 |
+$436.28 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $6.52 | 1,369 | $8,925.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $6.86 | 1,369 | $9,386.55 | $9,391.78 |
+$460.67 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.74 | 1,393 | $9,390.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $6.24 | 1,393 | $8,699.28 | $8,700.85 |
$-690.93 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.15 | 1,414 | $8,696.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,414 | $9,332.40 | $9,337.15 |
+$636.30 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,491 | $9,333.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $5.81 | 1,491 | $8,662.71 | $8,666.65 |
$-670.50 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,666.65
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,333.35
Total Return:
-13.33%