Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:55:54

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
5.0/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 17.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 17.7

30-Day Momentum

6
-1.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,225
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,934.91
Current Value
$10,301.75
Period P&L
$1,366.83
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
10 / 6
Best Trade
+7.28%
Worst Trade
-7.50%
Avg Trade Return
+1.02%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$236,689.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,366.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,366.83
Gross Return
+15.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,934.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $186.64 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET $187.84 0 $0.00 $8,991.31 +$56.40
(+0.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $182.09 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:20pm ET $178.44 0 $0.00 $8,812.46 $-178.85
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $181.83 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $178.12 0 $0.00 $8,634.38 $-178.08
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:35am ET $183.87 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.63 0 $0.00 $8,577.34 $-57.04
(-0.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET $178.73 47 $8,400.08
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $188.33 47 $8,851.37 $9,028.63 +$451.29
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.93 49 $8,914.81
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $168.56 49 $8,259.44 $8,373.26 $-655.38
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET $166.54 50 $8,327.00
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $175.74 50 $8,787.00 $8,833.26 +$460.00
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $172.08 51 $8,776.08
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $184.60 51 $9,414.60 $9,471.78 +$638.52
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $180.97 52 $9,410.44
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $191.50 52 $9,958.00 $10,019.34 +$547.56
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $199.10 50 $9,954.75
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:10am ET $209.44 50 $10,472.00 $10,536.59 +$517.25
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $209.21 50 $10,460.50
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $213.07 50 $10,653.25 $10,729.34 +$192.75
(+1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $214.04 50 $10,702.25
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $224.76 50 $11,238.25 $11,265.34 +$536.00
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
13 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $233.80 48 $11,222.40
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:05am ET $216.26 48 $10,380.48 $10,423.42 $-841.92
(-7.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
14 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $210.88 49 $10,332.88
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:25am ET $221.95 49 $10,875.55 $10,966.09 +$542.67
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $224.49 48 $10,775.52
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET $208.71 48 $10,018.08 $10,208.65 $-757.44
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $208.28 49 $10,205.72
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:10pm ET $210.18 49 $10,298.82 $10,301.75 +$93.10
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,301.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$301.75
Total Return: +3.02%
Back to Reversion