ADBE Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 52 trades executed
-13.61%
2 Years Return
$8,295.78
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$9,603.04
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
11.4/100
× Confidence 0.86
= 9.8
30-Day Momentum
16
+2.3%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.2
Conf: 0.70×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
51,487
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,603.04
Current Value
$8,295.78
Total P&L
$-1,307.26
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
46
Winners / Losers
27 /
19
Best Trade
+5.71%
Worst Trade
-10.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.29%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$113,474.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,307.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,307.26
Gross Return
-13.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.61%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,603.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2024 9:30am ET | $461.74 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2024 12:55pm ET | $452.28 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,413.93 |
$-189.11 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $513.34 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2024 9:55am ET | $521.84 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,567.02 |
+$153.09 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $524.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2024 9:35am ET | $534.00 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,737.66 |
+$170.64 (+1.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $504.59 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 11:05am ET | $512.71 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,891.94 |
+$154.28 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 13, 2024 9:30am ET | $533.30 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 13, 2024 3:50pm ET | $539.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,008.43 |
+$116.49 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $520.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 9:50am ET | $506.60 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,753.74 |
$-254.69 (-2.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2024 9:30am ET | $493.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2024 9:50am ET | $481.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,541.88 |
$-211.86 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $431.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $432.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,569.60 |
+$27.72 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $411.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $407.78 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,495.31 |
$-74.29 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $440.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $437.32 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,425.49 |
$-69.82 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $393.96 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2025 11:10am ET | $384.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,218.95 |
$-206.54 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $388.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $393.04 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,330.73 |
+$111.78 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $377.08 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 11:35am ET | $381.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,427.93 |
+$97.20 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $375.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 3:15pm ET | $367.82 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,235.68 |
$-192.25 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $356.49 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $360.72 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,341.56 |
+$105.88 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $337.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $341.40 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,460.36 |
+$118.80 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 12:25pm ET | $342.78 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 12:45pm ET | $347.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,576.46 |
+$116.10 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:55am ET | $340.90 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $344.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,685.52 |
+$109.06 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $406.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 11:30am ET | $397.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,491.28 |
$-194.24 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $393.39 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $385.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,299.40 |
$-191.88 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $391.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 1:50pm ET | $382.98 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,108.73 |
$-190.67 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $378.39 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $379.79 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,142.45 |
+$33.72 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $357.79 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 10:50am ET | $361.47 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,234.45 |
+$92.00 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $335.08 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $338.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,338.54 |
+$104.09 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $351.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $352.83 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,360.89 |
+$22.35 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 9:45am ET | $342.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $347.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,493.73 |
+$132.84 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $347.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 11:00am ET | $340.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,304.23 |
$-189.50 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $318.02 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:35am ET | $319.56 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,348.89 |
+$44.66 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $345.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:15am ET | $350.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,469.85 |
+$120.96 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $342.68 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $335.35 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,272.07 |
$-197.78 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $327.89 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $331.39 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,369.93 |
+$97.86 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.48 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:45pm ET | $334.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,462.75 |
+$92.82 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.71 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $329.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,567.01 |
+$104.26 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $321.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $314.54 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,371.55 |
$-195.46 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $297.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $300.75 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,484.08 |
+$112.53 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.60 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $285.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,270.96 |
$-213.12 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $276.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,085.97 |
$-184.99 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.94 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $272.06 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,328.05 |
+$242.08 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $257.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,437.85 |
+$109.80 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $281.41 | 33 | $9,286.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.22 | 33 | $8,323.26 | $8,474.58 |
$-963.27 (-10.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.02 | 34 | $8,432.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $237.34 | 34 | $8,069.56 | $8,111.29 |
$-363.29 (-4.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.38 | 34 | $8,036.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.50 | 34 | $8,211.00 | $8,285.37 |
+$174.08 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.27 | 34 | $8,271.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $225.51 | 34 | $7,667.51 | $7,681.70 |
$-603.67 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:10pm ET | $237.97 | 32 | $7,615.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 32 | $8,049.60 | $8,116.26 |
+$434.56 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $248.58 | 32 | $7,954.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $241.80 | 32 | $7,737.60 | $7,899.30 |
$-216.96 (-2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.97 | 32 | $7,711.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.36 | 32 | $8,107.52 | $8,295.78 |
+$396.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,295.78
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,704.22
Total Return:
-17.04%