Compendium › Reversion › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 14:55:00+00 • 26 trades executed

+17.24%
2 Years Return
$11,723.63
Current Value
73%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:59:21

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
12.4/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
8.1/10
Raw Quality 46.8/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 36.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-0.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,529
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$11,723.63
Total P&L
$1,723.63
Max Drawdown
-2.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
26
Winners / Losers
19 / 7
Best Trade
+5.10%
Worst Trade
-7.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.65%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$139,412.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,723.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,723.63
Gross Return
+17.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 30, 2024 2:40pm ET $123.80 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 31, 2024 9:30am ET $125.13 0 $0.00 $10,106.00 +$106.00
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 28, 2024 3:55pm ET $123.74 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2024 9:30am ET $127.29 0 $0.00 $10,393.55 +$287.55
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2024 9:30am ET $122.08 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2024 9:45am ET $119.58 0 $0.00 $10,181.05 $-212.50
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2024 9:30am ET $114.57 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2024 9:55am ET $116.02 0 $0.00 $10,309.09 +$128.04
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2024 9:30am ET $99.35 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2024 9:40am ET $101.50 0 $0.00 $10,530.54 +$221.45
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:35am ET $95.64 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 15, 2024 12:10pm ET $96.87 0 $0.00 $10,665.84 +$135.30
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2025 9:30am ET $98.90 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2025 11:00am ET $99.90 0 $0.00 $10,772.84 +$107.00
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2025 9:30am ET $88.64 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 10:10am ET $89.62 0 $0.00 $10,890.81 +$117.97
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2025 9:55am ET $88.15 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2025 11:15am ET $89.35 0 $0.00 $11,039.03 +$148.22
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:45am ET $84.56 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 12:00pm ET $82.64 0 $0.00 $10,788.78 $-250.25
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:35am ET $79.73 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:05am ET $80.61 0 $0.00 $10,907.58 +$118.80
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET $76.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 12:10pm ET $77.62 0 $0.00 $11,028.28 +$120.70
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 9:35am ET $76.72 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 10:25am ET $77.81 0 $0.00 $11,184.87 +$156.59
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:50am ET $80.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 1:40pm ET $79.01 0 $0.00 $10,957.17 $-227.70
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY May 8, 2025 9:45am ET $76.99 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 10:10am ET $77.81 0 $0.00 $11,073.61 +$116.44
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY May 13, 2025 9:30am ET $77.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2025 9:30am ET $76.76 0 $0.00 $10,930.90 $-142.71
(-1.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2025 9:30am ET $77.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2025 9:50am ET $78.60 0 $0.00 $11,049.20 +$118.30
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $84.57 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 10:10am ET $85.51 0 $0.00 $11,171.40 +$122.20
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:40am ET $97.11 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 11:25am ET $98.11 0 $0.00 $11,286.69 +$115.29
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $119.04 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET $117.62 0 $0.00 $11,152.74 $-133.95
(-1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $114.18 97 $11,075.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $115.35 97 $11,188.95 $11,266.23 +$113.49
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $115.38 97 $11,191.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $120.59 97 $11,697.23 $11,772.08 +$505.85
(+4.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $117.62 100 $11,762.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:35pm ET $123.62 100 $12,362.00 $12,372.08 +$600.00
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $121.51 101 $12,273.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $118.04 101 $11,922.04 $12,021.11 $-350.97
(-2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $116.53 103 $12,002.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 103 $11,146.66 $11,165.69 $-855.42
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $108.99 102 $11,116.98 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:20am ET $114.46 102 $11,674.92 $11,723.63 +$557.94
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,723.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,723.63
Total Return: +17.24%
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