Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:16:54

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 11.7/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 11.3

30-Day Momentum

48
+13.8%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.9 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+37 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,664
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,236.13
Current Value
$9,917.84
Period P&L
$681.71
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
6 / 6
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-7.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$129,051.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$681.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$681.71
Gross Return
+7.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,236.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $79.66 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET $80.51 0 $0.00 $9,334.46 +$98.33
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $70.77 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $69.11 0 $0.00 $9,117.00 $-217.46
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $68.42 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $66.91 0 $0.00 $8,916.17 $-200.83
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET $70.26 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:05am ET $69.67 0 $0.00 $8,841.83 $-74.34
(-0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET $67.66 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 1:40pm ET $68.34 0 $0.00 $8,930.23 +$88.40
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $72.06 123 $8,863.38
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $71.96 123 $8,851.08 $8,917.93 $-12.30
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET $72.47 123 $8,913.81
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:10pm ET $67.39 123 $8,289.58 $8,293.70 $-624.23
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET $63.67 130 $8,277.75
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $66.89 130 $8,695.70 $8,711.65 +$417.95
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $68.67 126 $8,651.79
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 126 $9,188.07 $9,247.93 +$536.28
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $69.38 133 $9,227.54
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 133 $9,779.49 $9,799.88 +$551.95
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $76.45 128 $9,785.60
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET $80.46 128 $10,298.24 $10,312.52 +$512.64
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET $78.12 132 $10,311.84
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET $75.13 132 $9,917.16 $9,917.84 $-394.68
(-3.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,917.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-82.16
Total Return: -0.82%
Back to Reversion