Compendium › Reversion › COIN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COIN
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 29 trades in period

-17.17%
Year to Date Return
$8,976.54
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,836.96
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 00:22:44

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 13.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

2
-6.6%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,780
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
122 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,836.96
Current Value
$8,976.54
Period P&L
$-1,860.42
Max Drawdown
-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
14 / 15
Best Trade
+9.09%
Worst Trade
-7.61%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$308,889.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,860.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,860.42
Gross Return
-17.17%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.17%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 122 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,836.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET $244.38 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:30pm ET $246.91 0 $0.00 $10,948.28 +$111.32
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 9:45am ET $238.86 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:30am ET $242.49 0 $0.00 $11,111.63 +$163.35
(+1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $248.86 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET $243.77 0 $0.00 $10,887.67 $-223.96
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $231.88 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET $234.27 0 $0.00 $10,997.47 +$109.80
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $218.16 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:25pm ET $221.67 0 $0.00 $11,172.97 +$175.50
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:40am ET $208.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:15am ET $211.13 0 $0.00 $11,307.06 +$134.09
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $204.46 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $200.16 0 $0.00 $11,070.45 $-236.61
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $189.19 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $186.02 0 $0.00 $10,886.60 $-183.85
(-1.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET $183.56 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET $185.53 0 $0.00 $11,002.83 +$116.23
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET $172.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET $168.36 0 $0.00 $10,757.13 $-245.70
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $162.93 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET $158.75 0 $0.00 $10,480.92 $-276.21
(-2.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $155.73 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET $152.03 0 $0.00 $10,233.02 $-247.90
(-2.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 9:40am ET $148.86 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $145.59 0 $0.00 $10,010.66 $-222.36
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $197.60 50 $9,880.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $203.18 50 $10,159.00 $10,289.66 +$279.00
(+2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $205.69 50 $10,284.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $190.04 50 $9,502.00 $9,507.16 $-782.50
(-7.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET $185.43 51 $9,456.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:35pm ET $172.34 51 $8,789.34 $8,839.57 $-667.59
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET $161.40 54 $8,715.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $169.83 54 $9,170.82 $9,294.79 +$455.22
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $174.30 53 $9,237.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $184.94 53 $9,801.82 $9,858.71 +$563.92
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $172.01 57 $9,804.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $183.92 57 $10,483.44 $10,537.58 +$678.87
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $189.90 55 $10,444.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:20pm ET $199.77 55 $10,987.35 $11,080.43 +$542.85
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $209.50 52 $10,894.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 1:25pm ET $197.73 52 $10,281.96 $10,468.39 $-612.04
(-5.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $187.15 55 $10,293.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $199.40 55 $10,967.27 $11,142.64 +$674.25
(+6.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
23 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:55am ET $200.04 55 $11,002.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $185.40 55 $10,196.73 $10,337.17 $-805.47
(-7.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
24 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $211.90 48 $10,171.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 9:45am ET $196.68 48 $9,440.49 $9,606.46 $-730.71
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
25 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $196.61 48 $9,437.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $185.66 48 $8,911.78 $9,080.96 $-525.50
(-5.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
26 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $178.35 50 $8,917.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:10am ET $187.32 50 $9,366.00 $9,529.46 +$448.50
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $176.94 53 $9,377.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $164.50 53 $8,718.50 $8,870.14 $-659.32
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $164.17 54 $8,865.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:20am ET $152.37 54 $8,227.98 $8,232.94 $-637.20
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $157.30 52 $8,179.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $171.60 52 $8,923.20 $8,976.54 +$743.60
(+9.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,976.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,023.46
Total Return: -10.23%
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