Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 16:09:30

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 7.2/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 5.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-11.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,757
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,287.72
Current Value
$8,185.44
Period P&L
$-1,102.28
Max Drawdown
-9.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+5.54%
Worst Trade
-7.14%
Avg Trade Return
-1.13%
Avg Hold Time
7.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$183,352.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,102.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,102.28
Gross Return
-11.87%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.87%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,287.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET $186.87 49 $9,156.63
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 11:20am ET $196.45 49 $9,626.06 $9,757.15 +$469.43
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:35am ET $196.05 49 $9,606.69
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $206.91 49 $10,138.59 $10,289.05 +$531.90
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 3:35pm ET $205.12 50 $10,256.00
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $198.69 50 $9,934.50 $9,967.55 $-321.50
(-3.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 11:50am ET $202.16 49 $9,905.84
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:20am ET $187.73 49 $9,198.77 $9,260.48 $-707.07
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 3:15pm ET $190.33 48 $9,135.84
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $187.73 48 $9,011.01 $9,135.65 $-124.83
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:55pm ET $188.34 48 $9,040.32
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 1:55pm ET $181.60 48 $8,716.80 $8,812.13 $-323.52
(-3.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $184.34 47 $8,663.75
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:10am ET $194.05 47 $9,120.35 $9,268.73 +$456.60
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
8 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:20am ET $194.31 47 $9,132.57
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:15am ET $180.50 47 $8,483.50 $8,619.66 $-649.07
(-7.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:35am ET $185.85 46 $8,549.10
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:35am ET $189.86 46 $8,733.56 $8,804.12 +$184.46
(+2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $186.82 47 $8,780.70
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET $173.66 47 $8,162.02 $8,185.44 $-618.68
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,185.44
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,814.56
Total Return: -18.15%
Back to Reversion