Compendium › Reversion › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-6.35%
Year to Date Return
$10,357.67
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$11,060.04
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:49:52

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
5.5/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 25.6/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 18.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,306
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,060.04
Current Value
$10,357.67
Period P&L
$-702.37
Max Drawdown
-2.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.52

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+3.23%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
-1.62%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$82,605.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-702.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-702.37
Gross Return
-6.35%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.35%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,060.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $357.00 30 $10,710.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $344.11 30 $10,323.30 $10,673.34 $-386.70
(-3.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $341.63 31 $10,590.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $324.95 31 $10,073.45 $10,156.26 $-517.08
(-4.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 2:40pm ET $326.50 31 $10,121.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $337.03 31 $10,447.93 $10,482.69 +$326.43
(+3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $341.06 30 $10,231.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $336.89 30 $10,106.70 $10,357.67 $-125.02
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,357.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$357.67
Total Return: +3.58%
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