Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:32

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 9.6

30-Day Momentum

33
+7.5%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.3 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,161
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,853.03
Current Value
$9,599.79
Period P&L
$-253.24
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+5.29%
Worst Trade
-6.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$109,712.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-253.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$-253.24
Gross Return
-2.57%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.57%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,853.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET $569.23 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $557.13 0 $0.00 $9,647.24 $-205.79
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $547.81 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $536.55 0 $0.00 $9,455.82 $-191.42
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $466.44 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $471.68 0 $0.00 $9,560.72 +$104.90
(+1.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $485.30 19 $9,220.79
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $484.23 19 $9,200.37 $9,540.30 $-20.42
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $484.70 19 $9,209.39
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:40pm ET $452.61 19 $8,599.59 $8,930.49 $-609.81
(-6.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET $450.56 19 $8,560.64
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $457.36 19 $8,689.84 $9,059.69 +$129.20
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $449.00 20 $8,980.00
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $472.67 20 $9,453.30 $9,532.99 +$473.30
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET $465.02 20 $9,300.50
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:15am ET $489.64 20 $9,792.90 $10,025.39 +$492.40
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $478.26 20 $9,565.20
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $456.98 20 $9,139.60 $9,599.79 $-425.60
(-4.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,599.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-400.21
Total Return: -4.00%
Back to Reversion