Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:31:33

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 11.1/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 9.8

30-Day Momentum

9
+1.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.3 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,766
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,230.08
Current Value
$9,895.54
Period P&L
$665.46
Max Drawdown
-19.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
6 / 5
Best Trade
+8.65%
Worst Trade
-3.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.72%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$92,621.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$665.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$665.46
Gross Return
+7.21%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,230.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $1,054.48 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:45am ET $1,066.76 0 $0.00 $9,328.32 +$98.24
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $1,048.07 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET $1,062.80 0 $0.00 $9,446.12 +$117.80
(+1.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,046.63 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:10am ET $1,023.11 0 $0.00 $9,234.39 $-211.73
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $1,066.58 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:40am ET $1,077.37 0 $0.00 $9,320.71 +$86.32
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $1,003.31 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,090.07 0 $0.00 $10,101.55 +$780.84
(+8.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,048.31 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET $1,024.88 0 $0.00 $9,890.63 $-210.92
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET $967.49 10 $9,674.90
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:40am ET $983.49 10 $9,834.90 $10,050.63 +$160.00
(+1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:35am ET $922.11 10 $9,221.10
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $888.80 10 $8,888.00 $9,717.53 $-333.10
(-3.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $940.00 10 $9,400.00
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $934.65 10 $9,346.51 $9,664.04 $-53.49
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $921.77 10 $9,217.70
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $900.42 10 $9,004.20 $9,450.54 $-213.50
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 1:35pm ET $879.47 10 $8,794.70
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET $923.97 10 $9,239.70 $9,895.54 +$445.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,895.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-104.46
Total Return: -1.04%
Back to Reversion