Compendium › Reversion › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

+29.38%
Year to Date Return
$12,414.44
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$9,595.66
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:23:24

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.9/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 27.4/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 27.0

30-Day Momentum

26
+6.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 35.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,406
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,595.66
Current Value
$12,414.44
Period P&L
$2,818.78
Max Drawdown
-27.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
20 / 8
Best Trade
+9.76%
Worst Trade
-8.84%
Avg Trade Return
+1.05%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$305,675.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,818.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,818.78
Gross Return
+29.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,595.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $10.06 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:25am ET $9.86 0 $0.00 $9,402.76 $-192.90
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $10.11 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $10.31 0 $0.00 $9,588.76 +$186.00
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET $10.98 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 12:40pm ET $11.12 0 $0.00 $9,715.35 +$126.59
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:55am ET $10.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:30am ET $10.92 0 $0.00 $9,836.85 +$121.50
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $10.40 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $10.63 0 $0.00 $10,059.16 +$222.31
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:20am ET $10.28 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:55am ET $10.39 0 $0.00 $10,171.63 +$112.47
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET $10.02 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $10.12 0 $0.00 $10,278.20 +$106.57
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $10.05 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $10.17 0 $0.00 $10,400.96 +$122.76
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $9.16 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:15am ET $9.26 0 $0.00 $10,509.58 +$108.62
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $9.14 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:05pm ET $8.94 0 $0.00 $10,285.87 $-223.71
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $7.78 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET $7.89 0 $0.00 $10,423.78 +$137.91
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $7.82 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $8.06 0 $0.00 $10,743.46 +$319.68
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET $7.92 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:35am ET $8.04 0 $0.00 $10,906.18 +$162.72
(+1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET $7.32 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 2:05pm ET $7.16 0 $0.00 $10,665.12 $-241.06
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $8.45 1,261 $10,661.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.28 1,261 $11,702.08 $11,705.44 +$1,040.32
(+9.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET $9.16 1,277 $11,697.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $8.52 1,277 $10,873.66 $10,881.78 $-823.66
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:40pm ET $8.56 1,271 $10,879.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $9.01 1,271 $11,451.71 $11,453.98 +$572.20
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET $8.76 1,308 $11,451.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET $8.14 1,308 $10,640.58 $10,643.02 $-810.96
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $8.75 1,216 $10,640.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $8.00 1,216 $9,728.00 $9,731.02 $-912.00
(-8.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:00pm ET $7.74 1,256 $9,727.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 2:45pm ET $8.15 1,256 $10,230.12 $10,233.42 +$502.40
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $7.79 1,313 $10,228.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $8.26 1,313 $10,838.82 $10,843.97 +$610.55
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $8.90 1,217 $10,837.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET $8.24 1,217 $10,027.96 $10,034.54 $-809.43
(-7.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $9.43 1,064 $10,033.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $9.92 1,064 $10,552.75 $10,553.77 +$519.23
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.31 1,134 $10,551.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 10:30am ET $9.87 1,134 $11,192.58 $11,194.48 +$640.71
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $11.30 990 $11,190.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET $11.92 990 $11,800.80 $11,804.62 +$610.14
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET $11.81 999 $11,803.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $10.77 999 $10,759.23 $10,760.67 $-1,043.95
(-8.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $10.73 1,003 $10,757.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:40am ET $11.47 1,003 $11,504.41 $11,507.90 +$747.23
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
28 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 11:35am ET $11.99 959 $11,503.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $12.94 959 $12,409.75 $12,414.44 +$906.54
(+7.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,414.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,414.44
Total Return: +24.14%
Back to Reversion