Compendium › Reversion › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 24 trades in period

-11.53%
Year to Date Return
$8,826.92
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$9,976.98
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:17:31

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
9.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 13.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

3
-8.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,442
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,976.98
Current Value
$8,826.92
Period P&L
$-1,150.06
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
15 / 9
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-7.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$157,881.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,150.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,150.06
Gross Return
-11.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,976.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $34.74 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:40am ET $35.13 0 $0.00 $10,088.42 +$111.44
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $35.34 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $34.57 0 $0.00 $9,867.54 $-220.88
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $33.57 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:50am ET $32.87 0 $0.00 $9,662.44 $-205.10
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $40.26 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $40.77 0 $0.00 $9,785.20 +$122.76
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:55am ET $39.45 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 11:10am ET $39.92 0 $0.00 $9,901.76 +$116.56
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:55am ET $53.24 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $53.85 0 $0.00 $10,014.61 +$112.85
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $49.63 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET $48.01 0 $0.00 $9,688.99 $-325.62
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:20am ET $46.81 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:35am ET $47.32 0 $0.00 $9,795.55 +$106.56
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET $45.80 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $46.41 0 $0.00 $9,926.10 +$130.55
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET $45.38 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET $44.24 0 $0.00 $9,676.49 $-249.61
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $42.48 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET $43.02 0 $0.00 $9,799.07 +$122.58
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 1:00pm ET $40.92 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 1:40pm ET $41.40 0 $0.00 $9,913.79 +$114.72
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:00am ET $39.61 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:25am ET $40.25 0 $0.00 $10,073.77 +$159.98
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $43.39 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $42.31 0 $0.00 $9,823.21 $-250.56
(-2.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:25am ET $39.03 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 12:05pm ET $39.47 0 $0.00 $9,932.37 +$109.16
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:25pm ET $42.54 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 2:20pm ET $43.13 0 $0.00 $10,068.67 +$136.30
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $50.90 197 $10,027.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $53.50 197 $10,539.50 $10,580.87 +$512.20
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $54.77 193 $10,570.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $50.85 193 $9,815.01 $9,825.27 $-755.60
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $51.26 191 $9,790.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 12:45pm ET $53.97 191 $10,308.75 $10,343.36 +$518.09
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET $52.80 195 $10,296.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:10am ET $49.00 195 $9,555.00 $9,602.36 $-741.00
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:25pm ET $50.65 189 $9,572.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $50.99 189 $9,637.11 $9,666.62 +$64.26
(+0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET $52.49 184 $9,658.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $55.50 184 $10,212.00 $10,220.46 +$553.84
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET $54.17 188 $10,183.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET $50.37 188 $9,469.56 $9,506.06 $-714.40
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET $48.28 196 $9,461.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET $44.81 196 $8,782.76 $8,826.92 $-679.14
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,826.92
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,173.08
Total Return: -11.73%
Back to Reversion