Compendium › Reversion › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 25 trades in period

+63.80%
Year to Date Return
$19,674.91
Current Value
84%
Win Rate
$11,612.29
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:49:38

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

67
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
27.3/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
12.0/15
Profit Factor
6.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 68.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 67.4

30-Day Momentum

70
+41.6%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
6
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 94.3 Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,474
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,612.29
Current Value
$19,674.91
Period P&L
$7,409.02
Max Drawdown
-12.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.52

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
21 / 4
Best Trade
+9.59%
Worst Trade
-7.42%
Avg Trade Return
+2.27%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$386,435.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,409.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,409.02
Gross Return
+63.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+63.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $11,612.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $286.25 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $302.59 0 $0.00 $12,265.89 +$653.60
(+5.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET $328.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:50am ET $321.60 0 $0.00 $12,007.63 $-258.26
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET $379.78 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET $384.44 0 $0.00 $12,152.09 +$144.46
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $389.13 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET $393.05 0 $0.00 $12,273.77 +$121.68
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET $426.31 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:45am ET $431.81 0 $0.00 $12,427.93 +$154.16
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $415.17 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $420.93 0 $0.00 $12,594.88 +$166.95
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $418.51 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET $425.80 0 $0.00 $12,813.58 +$218.70
(+1.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $403.66 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET $408.46 0 $0.00 $12,962.40 +$148.82
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $367.34 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET $373.58 0 $0.00 $13,180.80 +$218.40
(+1.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $372.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $377.50 0 $0.00 $13,352.30 +$171.50
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET $414.93 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:40am ET $419.37 0 $0.00 $13,494.38 +$142.08
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $397.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET $404.12 0 $0.00 $13,704.24 +$209.86
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $385.52 35 $13,493.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET $357.86 35 $12,525.10 $12,736.14 $-968.10
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET $410.74 31 $12,732.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $446.54 31 $13,842.74 $13,845.94 +$1,109.80
(+8.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 32 $13,568.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:15am ET $449.11 32 $14,371.36 $14,649.30 +$803.36
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
45m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET $411.02 35 $14,385.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $381.95 35 $13,368.25 $13,631.85 $-1,017.45
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $367.71 37 $13,605.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $340.44 37 $12,596.28 $12,622.68 $-1,009.17
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 11:50am ET $316.86 39 $12,357.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET $332.77 39 $12,978.03 $13,242.97 +$620.29
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $340.91 38 $12,954.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:10am ET $358.14 38 $13,609.32 $13,897.86 +$654.89
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
40m held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $377.93 36 $13,605.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $414.18 36 $14,910.66 $15,203.04 +$1,305.18
(+9.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET $410.40 37 $15,184.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $436.00 37 $16,132.00 $16,150.24 +$947.20
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:05am ET $449.54 35 $15,733.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET $474.45 35 $16,605.92 $17,022.44 +$872.20
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $475.27 35 $16,634.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $499.12 35 $17,469.20 $17,857.02 +$834.58
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $502.27 35 $17,579.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $527.40 35 $18,459.00 $18,736.57 +$879.55
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
25 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $511.03 36 $18,397.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $537.09 36 $19,335.42 $19,674.91 +$938.34
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
25m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,674.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,674.91
Total Return: +96.75%
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