Compendium › Reversion › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

-6.45%
Year to Date Return
$7,787.97
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$8,324.93
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 14:56:06

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 12.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.8

30-Day Momentum

3
-5.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,713
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,324.93
Current Value
$7,787.97
Period P&L
$-536.96
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
15 / 13
Best Trade
+8.43%
Worst Trade
-9.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$300,796.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-536.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-536.96
Gross Return
-6.45%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.45%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,324.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $4.97 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET $4.87 0 $0.00 $8,157.33 $-167.60
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:50am ET $4.69 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET $4.75 0 $0.00 $8,257.38 +$100.05
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $4.77 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $4.59 0 $0.00 $7,932.31 $-325.07
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $4.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET $4.57 0 $0.00 $7,872.49 $-59.82
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $4.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 12:00pm ET $4.63 0 $0.00 $7,958.49 +$86.00
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:45am ET $4.67 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET $4.67 0 $0.00 $7,954.23 $-4.26
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET $4.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:10am ET $4.73 0 $0.00 $8,081.28 +$127.05
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.53 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:50am ET $4.42 0 $0.00 $7,885.15 $-196.13
(-2.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $4.72 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.12 0 $0.00 $8,549.81 +$664.66
(+8.4%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET $4.84 0 $0.00 $8,685.05 +$135.24
(+1.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:30am ET $4.83 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 9:40am ET $4.90 0 $0.00 $8,810.91 +$125.86
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET $5.57 1,583 $8,809.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:40am ET $5.88 1,583 $9,308.04 $9,309.56 +$498.65
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $6.04 1,541 $9,307.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET $5.61 1,541 $8,648.09 $8,650.01 $-659.55
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $5.75 1,505 $8,649.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET $5.34 1,505 $8,039.86 $8,040.64 $-609.37
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $6.07 1,323 $8,037.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $6.42 1,323 $8,491.41 $8,494.83 +$454.19
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $6.13 1,385 $8,490.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $6.45 1,385 $8,926.33 $8,931.11 +$436.28
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $6.52 1,369 $8,925.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $6.86 1,369 $9,386.55 $9,391.78 +$460.67
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $6.74 1,393 $9,390.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET $6.24 1,393 $8,699.28 $8,700.85 $-690.93
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $6.15 1,414 $8,696.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $6.60 1,414 $9,332.40 $9,337.15 +$636.30
(+7.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $6.26 1,491 $9,333.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:35am ET $5.81 1,491 $8,662.71 $8,666.65 $-670.50
(-7.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
21 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,517 $8,665.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $6.01 1,517 $9,117.17 $9,117.96 +$451.31
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 11:55am ET $5.86 1,554 $9,114.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $6.32 1,554 $9,821.12 $9,824.88 +$706.92
(+7.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
23 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:35am ET $6.36 1,546 $9,824.83 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $5.89 1,546 $9,098.21 $9,098.26 $-726.62
(-7.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
24 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $5.74 1,585 $9,098.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $5.20 1,585 $8,242.00 $8,242.20 $-856.06
(-9.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
25 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $5.24 1,571 $8,239.89 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:30am ET $5.52 1,571 $8,671.92 $8,674.23 +$432.03
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
26 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 1:00pm ET $5.55 1,562 $8,669.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $5.89 1,562 $9,202.21 $9,207.34 +$533.11
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 1:00pm ET $6.05 1,523 $9,206.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $5.55 1,523 $8,452.80 $8,453.61 $-753.73
(-8.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:35pm ET $5.46 1,548 $8,452.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $5.03 1,548 $7,786.44 $7,787.97 $-665.64
(-7.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,787.97
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,212.03
Total Return: -22.12%
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