Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:49:53

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.0/35
Total Return
6.7/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 20.4/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 19.7

30-Day Momentum

53
+19.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 86.7 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,480
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,991.31
Current Value
$10,536.59
Period P&L
$1,545.27
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.40

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+7.28%
Worst Trade
-7.35%
Avg Trade Return
+1.90%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$109,525.57
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,545.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,545.27
Gross Return
+17.19%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.19%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $8,991.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $182.09 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:20pm ET $178.44 0 $0.00 $8,812.46 $-178.85
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $181.83 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $178.12 0 $0.00 $8,634.38 $-178.08
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 9:35am ET $183.87 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.63 0 $0.00 $8,577.34 $-57.04
(-0.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET $178.73 47 $8,400.08
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $188.33 47 $8,851.37 $9,028.63 +$451.29
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.93 49 $8,914.81
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $168.56 49 $8,259.44 $8,373.26 $-655.38
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:00am ET $166.54 50 $8,327.00
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $175.74 50 $8,787.00 $8,833.26 +$460.00
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $172.08 51 $8,776.08
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $184.60 51 $9,414.60 $9,471.78 +$638.52
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $180.97 52 $9,410.44
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $191.50 52 $9,958.00 $10,019.34 +$547.56
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $199.10 50 $9,954.75
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:10am ET $209.44 50 $10,472.00 $10,536.59 +$517.25
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,536.59
Net Profit/Loss: +$536.59
Total Return: +5.37%
Back to Reversion