Compendium › Reversion › PG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PG
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

-7.25%
Year to Date Return
$9,296.86
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$10,023.58
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:48:55

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
76.9 overbought
20d Trend
+10.5%
5d Trend
+5.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.7%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 67%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 8.8/100
× Confidence 0.67 = 5.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (67%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,541
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,023.58
Current Value
$9,296.86
Period P&L
$-726.72
Max Drawdown
-2.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.63

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+1.14%
Worst Trade
-6.60%
Avg Trade Return
-1.84%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$75,720.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-726.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-726.72
Gross Return
-7.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,023.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $153.63 65 $9,985.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $151.39 65 $9,840.35 $9,878.30 $-145.28
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $152.78 64 $9,777.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $142.69 64 $9,132.16 $9,232.54 $-645.76
(-6.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET $144.01 64 $9,216.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $145.64 64 $9,320.96 $9,337.18 +$104.64
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $144.43 64 $9,243.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET $143.80 64 $9,203.20 $9,296.86 $-40.32
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,296.86
Net Profit/Loss: $-703.14
Total Return: -7.03%
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