Compendium › Reversion › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 31 trades executed

-2.80%
2 Years Return
$9,632.98
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$9,910.02
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:48:44

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 11.4/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 9.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
43,511
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
510 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,910.02
Current Value
$9,632.98
Total P&L
$-277.04
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
28
Winners / Losers
16 / 12
Best Trade
+2.23%
Worst Trade
-2.33%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$77,248.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-277.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-277.04
Gross Return
-2.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 510 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,910.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 6, 2024 9:40am ET $303.58 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2024 9:40am ET $301.59 0 $0.00 $9,846.12 $-63.90
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 16, 2024 9:35am ET $310.95 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 16, 2024 11:55am ET $314.40 0 $0.00 $9,953.07 +$106.95
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY May 23, 2024 9:30am ET $304.52 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2024 9:40am ET $309.00 0 $0.00 $10,096.27 +$143.20
(+1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:35am ET $324.41 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 10:00am ET $327.70 0 $0.00 $10,198.26 +$101.99
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2024 9:30am ET $320.19 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2024 9:35am ET $313.77 0 $0.00 $9,999.24 $-199.02
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2024 9:30am ET $323.44 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2024 10:15am ET $316.51 0 $0.00 $9,791.34 $-207.90
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2024 2:15pm ET $307.05 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2024 2:30pm ET $300.27 0 $0.00 $9,581.31 $-210.03
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2024 9:30am ET $294.20 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2024 11:30am ET $297.19 0 $0.00 $9,676.99 +$95.68
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:30am ET $289.53 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 15, 2024 9:45am ET $283.29 0 $0.00 $9,470.91 $-206.08
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2024 9:30am ET $261.43 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2024 9:40am ET $265.22 0 $0.00 $9,607.35 +$136.44
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2024 9:45am ET $254.81 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2024 10:25am ET $257.37 0 $0.00 $9,702.25 +$94.90
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2025 9:30am ET $312.05 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2025 12:15pm ET $315.21 0 $0.00 $9,800.05 +$97.80
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $286.73 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $293.13 0 $0.00 $10,017.48 +$217.43
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET $272.57 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 9:35am ET $275.57 0 $0.00 $10,125.48 +$108.00
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:00am ET $280.57 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 11:35am ET $274.04 0 $0.00 $9,890.40 $-235.08
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2025 10:00am ET $287.52 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 3:20pm ET $281.41 0 $0.00 $9,682.66 $-207.74
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 9:30am ET $273.00 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2025 12:15pm ET $276.87 0 $0.00 $9,818.11 +$135.45
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 9:30am ET $283.42 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 10:00am ET $287.66 0 $0.00 $9,962.27 +$144.16
(+1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY May 2, 2025 10:05am ET $277.24 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 2, 2025 11:00am ET $280.45 0 $0.00 $10,074.62 +$112.35
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
20 🟢 BUY May 8, 2025 9:30am ET $267.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 11:10am ET $270.80 0 $0.00 $10,187.01 +$112.39
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 2:30pm ET $275.64 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2025 2:50pm ET $270.00 0 $0.00 $9,983.80 $-203.21
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2025 9:30am ET $287.70 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2025 2:45pm ET $281.79 0 $0.00 $9,782.87 $-200.93
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET $313.44 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:30am ET $317.32 0 $0.00 $9,903.13 +$120.26
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $322.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET $325.91 0 $0.00 $10,002.51 +$99.38
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $367.39 27 $9,919.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:45pm ET $365.82 27 $9,877.14 $9,960.25 $-42.26
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $357.64 27 $9,656.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $350.45 27 $9,462.15 $9,766.26 $-193.99
(-2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 2:25pm ET $350.73 27 $9,469.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $351.85 27 $9,499.95 $9,796.50 +$30.24
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET $348.70 28 $9,763.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $342.86 28 $9,600.08 $9,632.98 $-163.52
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,632.98
Net Profit/Loss: $-367.02
Total Return: -3.67%
Back to Reversion