AXP Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 33 trades executed
+7.10%
2 Years Return
$10,710.39
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
22
Lifetime
Confidence: 80%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
7.6/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality
27.8/100
× Confidence 0.80
= 22.1
30-Day Momentum
24
+6.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 39.0
Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (80%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,837
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$10,710.39
Total P&L
$710.39
Max Drawdown
-9.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
33
Winners / Losers
21 /
12
Best Trade
+6.30%
Worst Trade
-4.74%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$104,098.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$710.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$710.39
Gross Return
+7.10%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.10%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2024 9:40am ET | $227.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2024 9:40am ET | $228.18 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,030.75 |
+$30.75 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $239.86 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 19, 2024 1:55pm ET | $242.64 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,144.52 |
+$113.77 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $240.98 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2024 10:25am ET | $236.11 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,939.98 |
$-204.54 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $223.22 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 9:45am ET | $226.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,068.24 |
+$128.26 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2024 10:10am ET | $243.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2024 2:50pm ET | $245.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,171.76 |
+$103.52 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $272.11 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 18, 2024 11:35am ET | $275.59 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,300.70 |
+$128.94 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET | $287.21 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $295.37 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,586.13 |
+$285.43 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $316.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 24, 2025 3:55pm ET | $321.38 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,757.70 |
+$171.57 (+1.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2025 10:45am ET | $307.83 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2025 2:10pm ET | $311.16 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,870.98 |
+$113.28 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $286.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $280.13 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,637.56 |
$-233.42 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $278.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 10:35am ET | $281.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,766.38 |
+$128.82 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $265.42 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:45pm ET | $259.94 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,547.14 |
$-219.24 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $257.68 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $252.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,327.54 |
$-219.60 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $236.05 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $231.19 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,118.77 |
$-208.77 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $223.71 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $226.71 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,253.77 |
+$135.00 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $251.76 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 11:35am ET | $245.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,018.97 |
$-234.80 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $247.13 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 10:30am ET | $241.73 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,802.97 |
$-216.00 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $261.31 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2025 1:30pm ET | $263.97 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,901.39 |
+$98.42 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $291.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $292.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,944.23 |
+$42.84 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $306.19 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $308.26 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,010.47 |
+$66.24 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $291.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 12:00pm ET | $294.48 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,116.04 |
+$105.57 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $323.04 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $327.23 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,245.95 |
+$129.91 (+1.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 10:30am ET | $332.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $334.64 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,316.60 |
+$70.65 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $356.31 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 1:50pm ET | $359.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,418.94 |
+$102.34 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,387.30 |
$-31.64 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $357.35 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.93 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,346.16 |
$-41.14 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $348.49 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $352.07 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,449.84 |
+$103.68 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $347.41 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $339.57 | 0 | $0.00 | $10,214.49 |
$-235.35 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.35 | 34 | $10,109.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $300.94 | 34 | $10,231.96 | $10,336.55 |
+$122.06 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $300.85 | 34 | $10,228.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $292.46 | 34 | $9,943.81 | $10,051.46 |
$-285.09 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $300.70 | 33 | $9,923.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $319.66 | 33 | $10,548.78 | $10,676.98 |
+$625.52 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $314.16 | 33 | $10,367.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $331.20 | 33 | $10,929.76 | $11,239.43 |
+$562.45 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $328.58 | 34 | $11,171.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $313.02 | 34 | $10,642.68 | $10,710.39 |
$-529.04 (-4.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
11d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,710.39
Net Profit/Loss:
+$710.39
Total Return:
+7.10%