Compendium › Reversion › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 21 trades executed

+2.18%
2 Years Return
$10,357.67
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,136.23
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:48:07

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
5.5/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 25.6/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 18.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
46,677
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
524 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,136.23
Current Value
$10,357.67
Total P&L
$221.44
Max Drawdown
-2.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
18
Winners / Losers
12 / 6
Best Trade
+3.30%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$82,605.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$221.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$221.44
Gross Return
+2.18%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.18%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 524 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $10,136.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2024 9:30am ET $340.97 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2024 9:30am ET $341.95 0 $0.00 $10,164.65 +$28.42
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2024 9:30am ET $391.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2024 10:05am ET $396.59 0 $0.00 $10,288.15 +$123.50
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2024 9:35am ET $389.28 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2024 9:30am ET $394.31 0 $0.00 $10,418.88 +$130.73
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:35am ET $402.54 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2025 10:20am ET $406.97 0 $0.00 $10,529.50 +$110.62
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2025 9:30am ET $404.16 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2025 9:30am ET $407.80 0 $0.00 $10,624.20 +$94.70
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 7, 2025 9:35am ET $374.83 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $379.17 0 $0.00 $10,745.72 +$121.52
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 9:30am ET $357.50 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 11:10am ET $349.84 0 $0.00 $10,516.07 $-229.65
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2025 9:35am ET $346.78 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2025 10:50am ET $350.30 0 $0.00 $10,621.67 +$105.60
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $353.70 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 10:25am ET $357.80 0 $0.00 $10,744.67 +$123.00
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $336.41 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $347.52 0 $0.00 $11,089.08 +$344.41
(+3.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET $326.46 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 9:50am ET $330.44 0 $0.00 $11,220.42 +$131.34
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 10:25am ET $372.84 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:25am ET $371.35 0 $0.00 $11,175.72 $-44.70
(-0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $344.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 3:35pm ET $337.62 0 $0.00 $10,950.92 $-224.80
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET $346.39 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 11:40am ET $349.91 0 $0.00 $11,060.04 +$109.12
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $357.00 30 $10,710.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $344.11 30 $10,323.30 $10,673.34 $-386.70
(-3.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $341.63 31 $10,590.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $324.95 31 $10,073.45 $10,156.26 $-517.08
(-4.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 2:40pm ET $326.50 31 $10,121.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $337.03 31 $10,447.93 $10,482.69 +$326.43
(+3.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $341.06 30 $10,231.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $336.89 30 $10,106.70 $10,357.67 $-125.02
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,357.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$357.67
Total Return: +3.58%
Back to Reversion