Compendium › Reversion › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Reversion's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 29 trades executed

-6.68%
2 Years Return
$9,245.03
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,906.44
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 04:39:42

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 10.7/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 8.2

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,055
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
528 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,906.44
Current Value
$9,245.03
Total P&L
$-661.42
Max Drawdown
-5.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
27
Winners / Losers
15 / 12
Best Trade
+5.84%
Worst Trade
-7.65%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$113,506.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-661.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-661.42
Gross Return
-6.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 528 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,906.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $182.19 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 10:00am ET $184.68 0 $0.00 $10,040.63 +$134.19
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2024 9:30am ET $218.50 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 25, 2024 9:30am ET $216.81 0 $0.00 $9,964.58 $-76.05
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET $247.29 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2025 10:05am ET $250.13 0 $0.00 $10,078.18 +$113.60
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2025 9:40am ET $247.24 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2025 9:40am ET $247.08 0 $0.00 $10,071.58 $-6.60
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2025 9:30am ET $243.90 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2025 9:40am ET $238.36 0 $0.00 $9,844.54 $-227.04
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 10:20am ET $242.65 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 11:15am ET $245.15 0 $0.00 $9,944.54 +$100.00
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $237.53 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 12:15pm ET $232.59 0 $0.00 $9,741.85 $-202.69
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $220.17 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $228.11 0 $0.00 $10,091.43 +$349.58
(+3.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 9:30am ET $227.07 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 9:50am ET $229.84 0 $0.00 $10,213.31 +$121.88
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET $278.05 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 20, 2025 9:40am ET $282.33 0 $0.00 $10,367.57 +$154.26
(+1.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET $258.76 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 9:55am ET $253.25 0 $0.00 $10,147.37 $-220.20
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET $271.79 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2025 9:50am ET $276.98 0 $0.00 $10,339.44 +$192.07
(+1.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 10:15am ET $302.10 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2025 10:50am ET $306.12 0 $0.00 $10,476.11 +$136.67
(+1.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $296.42 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 9:40am ET $300.69 0 $0.00 $10,625.56 +$149.45
(+1.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET $305.45 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:35am ET $306.92 0 $0.00 $10,675.54 +$49.98
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET $297.40 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 9:55am ET $300.91 0 $0.00 $10,798.57 +$123.03
(+1.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 9:45am ET $296.97 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 10:45am ET $300.26 0 $0.00 $10,916.92 +$118.35
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $297.60 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 3:10pm ET $291.39 0 $0.00 $10,693.36 $-223.56
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $307.51 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET $300.13 0 $0.00 $10,442.44 $-250.92
(-2.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $283.43 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:35am ET $286.35 0 $0.00 $10,547.51 +$105.07
(+1.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 9:35am ET $267.59 0 $0.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $262.21 0 $0.00 $10,337.88 $-209.63
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $255.84 40 $10,233.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $248.71 40 $9,948.20 $10,052.48 $-285.40
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $254.14 39 $9,911.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $236.15 39 $9,209.85 $9,350.87 $-701.61
(-7.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET $238.13 39 $9,286.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $236.48 39 $9,222.72 $9,286.71 $-64.16
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 40 $9,246.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $244.66 40 $9,786.40 $9,826.71 +$540.00
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $249.95 39 $9,747.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 39 $9,001.98 $9,080.84 $-745.88
(-7.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $227.53 39 $8,873.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:40am ET $231.74 39 $9,037.86 $9,245.03 +$164.19
(+1.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,245.03
Net Profit/Loss: $-754.97
Total Return: -7.55%
Back to Reversion