Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 04:35:57

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 14.4/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 9.7

30-Day Momentum

6
-3.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
46,358
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
519 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,587.07
Current Value
$9,186.58
Total P&L
$-400.49
Max Drawdown
-4.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
7 / 2
Best Trade
+2.17%
Worst Trade
-6.26%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,921.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-400.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-400.49
Gross Return
-4.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.18%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 519 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,587.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2024 9:30am ET $248.51 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2024 12:10pm ET $251.40 0 $0.00 $9,697.23 +$110.16
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2024 9:30am ET $295.19 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2024 10:15am ET $298.67 0 $0.00 $9,808.59 +$111.36
(+1.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2025 9:45am ET $300.79 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:45am ET $301.26 0 $0.00 $9,823.63 +$15.04
(+0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $293.58 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $299.95 0 $0.00 $10,033.84 +$210.21
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $323.82 30 $9,714.53
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET $327.18 30 $9,815.40 $10,134.71 +$100.87
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:45pm ET $327.65 30 $9,829.50
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:45pm ET $307.15 30 $9,214.50 $9,519.71 $-615.00
(-6.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:50pm ET $309.17 30 $9,275.25
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:50pm ET $310.76 30 $9,322.65 $9,567.11 +$47.40
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 3:25pm ET $305.25 31 $9,462.75
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $306.90 31 $9,513.90 $9,618.26 +$51.15
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 3:35pm ET $300.07 32 $9,602.24
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $286.58 32 $9,170.56 $9,186.58 $-431.68
(-4.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,186.58
Net Profit/Loss: $-813.42
Total Return: -8.13%
Back to Reversion