NFLX Reversion's Analysis
2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 42 trades executed
-9.62%
2 Years Return
$8,604.20
Current Value
51%
Win Rate
$9,520.00
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
6.4/100
× Confidence 0.84
= 5.3
30-Day Momentum
0
-5.8%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
59,008
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
533 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,520.00
Current Value
$8,604.20
Total P&L
$-915.80
Max Drawdown
-10.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
39
Winners / Losers
20 /
19
Best Trade
+5.12%
Worst Trade
-9.26%
Avg Trade Return
-0.23%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$106,818.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-915.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-915.80
Gross Return
-9.62%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.62%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 533 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,520.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $59.06 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 9:45am ET | $59.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,665.38 |
+$145.38 (+1.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $70.15 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2024 10:35am ET | $70.88 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,766.49 |
+$101.11 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 27, 2024 9:35am ET | $90.28 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 9:35am ET | $89.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,703.96 |
$-62.53 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.38 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $83.62 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,504.29 |
$-199.67 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $96.57 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 2:35pm ET | $97.65 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,610.13 |
+$105.84 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $95.92 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2025 12:10pm ET | $93.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,413.29 |
$-196.84 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $87.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 1:35pm ET | $88.71 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,540.67 |
+$127.38 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $87.90 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,638.72 |
+$98.05 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $93.52 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $93.09 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,594.84 |
$-43.88 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:55am ET | $94.36 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.28 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,182.79 |
$-412.05 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:35am ET | $90.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 11:35am ET | $91.63 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,274.50 |
+$91.71 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.84 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $87.72 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,056.86 |
$-217.64 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.20 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $85.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,274.80 |
+$217.94 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 12:00pm ET | $90.72 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 1:30pm ET | $91.68 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,372.62 |
+$97.82 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.32 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $112.89 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,504.81 |
+$132.19 (+1.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $111.47 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:45am ET | $112.77 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,615.31 |
+$110.50 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2025 9:40am ET | $118.45 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $119.92 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,734.70 |
+$119.39 (+1.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 11:10am ET | $129.27 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2025 11:10am ET | $127.85 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,627.82 |
$-106.88 (-1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $124.88 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 11:45am ET | $126.22 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,731.12 |
+$103.30 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $121.73 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $121.30 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,697.55 |
$-33.57 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $120.87 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET | $121.45 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,743.87 |
+$46.32 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $121.65 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $119.58 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,578.31 |
$-165.56 (-1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 9:45am ET | $116.51 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:15am ET | $117.70 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,675.91 |
+$97.60 (+1.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.10 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $111.80 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,482.93 |
$-192.98 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:50am ET | $112.44 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:50am ET | $111.07 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,367.26 |
$-115.67 (-1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.97 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET | $109.42 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,155.54 |
$-211.72 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $104.55 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $102.31 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,961.09 |
$-194.45 (-2.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $100.40 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $102.44 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,142.65 |
+$181.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $98.12 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:20am ET | $95.96 | 0 | $0.00 | $8,941.30 |
$-201.35 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.18 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $84.08 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,037.87 |
+$96.57 (+1.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $84.01 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.46 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,192.53 |
+$154.66 (+1.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.09 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.67 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,255.64 |
+$63.11 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.00 | 0 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $76.17 | 0 | $0.00 | $9,039.64 |
$-216.00 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $97.50 | 92 | $8,969.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $95.33 | 92 | $8,770.36 | $8,840.46 |
$-199.18 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $95.06 | 92 | $8,745.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:45pm ET | $93.44 | 92 | $8,596.94 | $8,691.88 |
$-148.58 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $92.92 | 93 | $8,641.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $97.67 | 93 | $9,083.31 | $9,134.09 |
+$442.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $98.64 | 92 | $9,074.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET | $103.62 | 92 | $9,533.43 | $9,592.64 |
+$458.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $105.86 | 90 | $9,526.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $96.05 | 90 | $8,644.68 | $8,710.37 |
$-882.27 (-9.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $94.23 | 92 | $8,669.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $93.08 | 92 | $8,562.99 | $8,604.20 |
$-106.17 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,604.20
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,395.80
Total Return:
-13.96%