Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:46:13

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
85.2 overbought
20d Trend
+19.9%
5d Trend
+9.7%
EMA20 Dist
+9.3%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
62.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.7/10
Raw Quality 2.1/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 1.6

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,896
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
524 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,744.15
Current Value
$8,847.63
Total P&L
$-896.52
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.41

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+1.95%
Worst Trade
-3.43%
Avg Trade Return
-0.63%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$88,811.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-896.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$-896.52
Gross Return
-9.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 524 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Reversion had $9,744.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 28, 2024 9:30am ET $174.57 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL May 29, 2024 9:30am ET $171.70 0 $0.00 $9,586.30 $-157.85
(-1.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 15, 2024 9:50am ET $161.89 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Nov 15, 2024 11:20am ET $158.58 0 $0.00 $9,391.31 $-194.99
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2025 9:30am ET $146.36 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 11:10am ET $143.43 0 $0.00 $9,203.47 $-187.84
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2025 9:55am ET $152.91 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2025 9:30am ET $147.66 0 $0.00 $8,888.47 $-315.00
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2025 9:35am ET $148.29 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 9:35am ET $149.23 0 $0.00 $8,943.59 +$55.12
(+0.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $142.60 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:15am ET $145.38 0 $0.00 $9,115.95 +$172.36
(+1.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 10:20am ET $137.57 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 1:20pm ET $134.75 0 $0.00 $8,929.50 $-186.45
(-2.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2025 9:35am ET $142.91 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2025 9:35am ET $142.12 0 $0.00 $8,880.52 $-48.98
(-0.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 6, 2025 9:40am ET $139.35 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 6, 2025 10:15am ET $140.78 0 $0.00 $8,970.93 +$90.41
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET $146.89 0 $0.00
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 9:30am ET $147.18 0 $0.00 $8,988.93 +$18.00
(+0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $158.25 56 $8,862.00
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:30am ET $160.16 56 $8,969.24 $9,096.17 +$107.24
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $156.61 58 $9,083.33
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $152.52 58 $8,846.16 $8,859.00 $-237.17
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $157.50 56 $8,820.00
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $157.76 56 $8,834.28 $8,873.28 +$14.28
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET $155.61 57 $8,869.77
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:05am ET $155.74 57 $8,877.18 $8,880.69 +$7.41
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $155.11 57 $8,841.27
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $154.53 57 $8,808.21 $8,847.63 $-33.06
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,847.63
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,152.37
Total Return: -11.52%
Back to Reversion