Compendium › Squeeze Monday › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Squeeze Monday's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-2.64%
Last Year Return
$12,156.71
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$12,486.25
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:15:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 70%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.1/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 0.70 = 25.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (70%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,627
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$12,486.25
Current Value
$12,156.71
Period P&L
$-329.54
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+4.23%
Worst Trade
-2.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,808.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-329.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$-329.54
Gross Return
-2.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Squeeze Monday had $12,486.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 15 $12,052.61 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $775.17 15 $11,765.74 $11,765.74 $-286.87
(-2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 10:00am ET $740.37 16 $11,765.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $725.12 16 $11,523.39 $11,523.39 $-242.35
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET $734.91 16 $11,523.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $765.97 16 $12,010.41 $12,010.41 +$487.02
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $940.00 13 $12,010.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $951.45 13 $12,156.71 $12,156.71 +$146.30
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,156.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,156.71
Total Return: +21.57%
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