Compendium › Squeeze Monday › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Squeeze Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 23 trades executed

+8.61%
2 Years Return
$12,156.71
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$11,192.64
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 04:25:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 70%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.1/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 0.70 = 25.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (70%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,827
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
529 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,192.64
Current Value
$12,156.71
Total P&L
$964.07
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+13.12%
Worst Trade
-8.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.75%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$336,688.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$964.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$964.07
Gross Return
+8.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 529 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Squeeze Monday had $11,192.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2024 10:45am ET $822.84 14 $11,192.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2024 3:55pm ET $792.90 14 $10,785.38 $10,785.38 $-407.26
(-3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2024 3:55pm ET $792.90 14 $10,785.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 9, 2024 3:55pm ET $892.10 14 $12,134.74 $12,134.74 +$1,349.36
(+12.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2024 9:30am ET $944.82 13 $12,134.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2024 3:55pm ET $908.07 13 $11,662.74 $11,662.74 $-472.00
(-3.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2024 12:10pm ET $895.30 13 $11,662.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 13, 2024 3:55pm ET $923.15 13 $12,025.60 $12,025.60 +$362.86
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2024 9:30am ET $907.94 13 $12,025.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 20, 2024 3:55pm ET $922.02 13 $12,212.03 $12,212.03 +$186.43
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $797.65 15 $12,212.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $788.94 15 $12,078.76 $12,078.76 $-133.27
(-1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 10:55am ET $747.33 16 $12,078.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $731.93 16 $11,829.88 $11,829.88 $-248.88
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:45am ET $742.09 16 $11,829.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $839.47 16 $13,382.33 $13,382.33 +$1,552.45
(+13.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $839.47 16 $13,382.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $828.40 16 $13,205.86 $13,205.86 $-176.47
(-1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $870.05 15 $13,205.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 15 $12,052.61 $12,052.61 $-1,153.25
(-8.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 15 $12,052.61 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $775.17 15 $11,765.74 $11,765.74 $-286.87
(-2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 10:00am ET $740.37 16 $11,765.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $725.12 16 $11,523.39 $11,523.39 $-242.35
(-2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET $734.91 16 $11,523.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $765.97 16 $12,010.41 $12,010.41 +$487.02
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $940.00 13 $12,010.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $951.45 13 $12,156.71 $12,156.71 +$146.30
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,156.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,156.71
Total Return: +21.57%
Back to Squeeze Monday