Compendium › Squeeze Monday › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Squeeze Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 10 trades executed

+16.57%
2 Years Return
$11,636.40
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,982.32
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:21:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 63%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
10.3/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 34.6/100
× Confidence 0.63 = 21.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (63%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
78,238
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,982.32
Current Value
$11,636.40
Total P&L
$1,654.08
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+12.30%
Worst Trade
-5.57%
Avg Trade Return
+1.88%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$188,285.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,654.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,654.08
Gross Return
+16.57%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.57%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Squeeze Monday had $9,982.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2024 10:45am ET $414.14 24 $9,982.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 5, 2024 3:55pm ET $408.40 24 $9,843.96 $9,843.96 $-138.36
(-1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2024 10:30am ET $411.07 24 $9,843.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 13, 2024 3:55pm ET $430.57 24 $10,311.06 $10,311.06 +$467.10
(+4.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 28, 2025 9:30am ET $386.95 27 $10,311.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $382.08 27 $10,181.29 $10,181.29 $-129.77
(-1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2025 2:15pm ET $380.94 27 $10,181.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $359.72 27 $9,614.15 $9,614.15 $-567.14
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 11:50am ET $356.11 27 $9,614.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $390.43 27 $10,540.86 $10,540.86 +$926.71
(+9.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 11:25am ET $388.68 27 $10,540.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $371.61 27 $10,077.93 $10,077.93 $-462.93
(-4.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $387.46 26 $10,077.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 2, 2025 3:55pm ET $435.10 26 $11,317.06 $11,317.06 +$1,239.13
(+12.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY May 6, 2025 9:30am ET $433.26 26 $11,317.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $438.24 26 $11,447.27 $11,447.27 +$130.21
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $365.58 31 $11,447.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $371.62 31 $11,636.40 $11,636.40 +$189.13
(+1.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,636.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,636.40
Total Return: +16.36%
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