Compendium › Storm Monday › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Storm Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 13:45:00+00 • 11 trades executed

+19.79%
2 Years Return
$13,256.60
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$11,066.69
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:48:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 64%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
22.8/35
Total Return
12.7/25
Win Rate
15.0/15
Profit Factor
6.6/15
Consistency
8.9/10
Raw Quality 66.0/100
× Confidence 0.64 = 42.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (64%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,831
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,066.69
Current Value
$13,256.60
Total P&L
$2,189.91
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.41

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
8
Winners / Losers
6 / 2
Best Trade
+11.58%
Worst Trade
-8.73%
Avg Trade Return
+2.42%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$203,490.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,189.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,189.91
Gross Return
+19.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Storm Monday had $11,066.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $757.23 15 $11,066.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $844.95 15 $12,348.69 $12,348.69 +$1,282.00
(+11.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2024 10:30am ET $902.51 14 $12,348.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2024 3:55pm ET $935.61 14 $12,801.58 $12,801.58 +$452.89
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $797.65 16 $12,801.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $788.94 16 $12,661.87 $12,661.87 $-139.71
(-1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $698.36 18 $12,661.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $720.02 18 $13,054.58 $13,054.58 +$392.71
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $830.81 16 $13,054.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $860.36 16 $13,518.90 $13,518.90 +$464.32
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $870.05 16 $13,518.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 16 $12,338.32 $12,338.32 $-1,180.58
(-8.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2025 9:45am ET $734.91 17 $12,338.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $765.97 17 $12,859.78 $12,859.78 +$521.46
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $926.68 14 $12,859.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $955.28 14 $13,256.60 $13,256.60 +$396.82
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,256.60
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,256.60
Total Return: +32.57%
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