Compendium › Surge › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-20 to present • 3 trades in period

+4.02%
Last Month Return
$41,752.11
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$40,140.07
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:28:58

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

70
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.8/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
6.8/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 72.2/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 69.9

30-Day Momentum

10
+4.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.7 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-60 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$40,140.07
Current Value
$41,752.11
Period P&L
$1,612.04
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+16.23%
Worst Trade
-5.52%
Avg Trade Return
+1.85%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$259,762.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,612.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,612.04
Gross Return
+4.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $40,140.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $822.46 48 $39,478.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $955.96 48 $45,886.08 $46,548.07 +$6,408.00
(+16.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,009.50 46 $46,437.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $953.80 46 $43,874.80 $43,985.87 $-2,562.20
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $938.26 46 $43,159.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $889.70 46 $40,926.20 $41,752.11 $-2,233.76
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $41,752.11
Net Profit/Loss: +$31,752.11
Total Return: +317.52%
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