Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:29:12

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.6/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 27.9/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 27.0

30-Day Momentum

0
-8.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
35,299
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$12,810.86
Current Value
$13,937.32
Period P&L
$1,126.46
Max Drawdown
-20.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
57
Winners / Losers
29 / 28
Best Trade
+15.44%
Worst Trade
-15.96%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,566,920.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,126.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,126.46
Gross Return
+8.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 57 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,810.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 1:20pm ET $252.06 50 $12,603.00
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2025 10:00am ET $264.09 50 $13,204.65 $13,412.50 +$601.64
(+4.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2025 10:05am ET $268.32 49 $13,147.68
🔴 SELL Jun 27, 2025 10:35am ET $271.66 49 $13,311.34 $13,576.16 +$163.66
(+1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2025 12:00pm ET $277.58 48 $13,323.84
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2025 1:20pm ET $274.68 48 $13,184.64 $13,436.96 $-139.20
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2025 10:15am ET $267.10 50 $13,355.00
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 10:05am ET $273.99 50 $13,699.25 $13,781.22 +$344.26
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 3, 2025 10:10am ET $274.36 50 $13,718.00
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2025 1:35pm ET $275.37 50 $13,768.50 $13,831.72 +$50.50
(+0.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 11, 2025 12:00pm ET $275.73 50 $13,786.25
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2025 12:30pm ET $275.80 50 $13,790.00 $13,835.46 +$3.74
(+0.0%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2025 12:50pm ET $276.47 50 $13,823.50
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2025 1:20pm ET $279.96 50 $13,997.75 $14,009.71 +$174.25
(+1.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2025 3:50pm ET $281.44 49 $13,790.56
🔴 SELL Jul 18, 2025 10:20am ET $283.56 49 $13,894.29 $14,113.44 +$103.73
(+0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2025 10:25am ET $288.86 48 $13,865.28
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2025 10:00am ET $277.24 48 $13,307.52 $13,555.68 $-557.76
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2025 11:50am ET $280.58 48 $13,467.84
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2025 11:45am ET $287.84 48 $13,816.32 $13,904.16 +$348.48
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 25, 2025 12:20pm ET $291.51 47 $13,700.97
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2025 12:50pm ET $291.91 47 $13,719.54 $13,922.72 +$18.56
(+0.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2025 3:15pm ET $294.20 47 $13,827.40
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2025 3:45pm ET $297.47 47 $13,981.21 $14,076.53 +$153.81
(+1.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2025 2:20pm ET $302.38 46 $13,909.48
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 10:50am ET $298.95 46 $13,751.70 $13,918.75 $-157.78
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2025 10:20am ET $289.60 48 $13,900.80
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2025 10:10am ET $296.94 48 $14,252.88 $14,270.83 +$352.08
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2025 11:55am ET $297.62 47 $13,988.14
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2025 10:40am ET $293.80 47 $13,808.60 $14,091.29 $-179.54
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2025 10:55am ET $296.93 47 $13,955.48
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2025 10:00am ET $308.89 47 $14,517.60 $14,653.41 +$562.12
(+4.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2025 1:15pm ET $309.44 47 $14,543.68
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2025 12:45pm ET $306.18 47 $14,390.46 $14,500.19 $-153.22
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2025 10:25am ET $292.32 49 $14,323.44
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2025 11:10am ET $289.10 49 $14,165.66 $14,342.41 $-157.78
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2025 10:00am ET $295.67 48 $14,192.16
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2025 10:30am ET $295.14 48 $14,166.72 $14,316.97 $-25.44
(-0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2025 11:00am ET $296.91 48 $14,251.68
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2025 11:30am ET $297.49 48 $14,279.38 $14,344.67 +$27.70
(+0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2025 12:45pm ET $299.57 47 $14,079.79
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2025 10:10am ET $307.66 47 $14,460.02 $14,724.90 +$380.23
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2025 2:25pm ET $310.16 47 $14,577.52
🔴 SELL Aug 29, 2025 10:00am ET $297.81 47 $13,997.07 $14,144.45 $-580.45
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2025 12:55pm ET $296.24 47 $13,923.28
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2025 10:45am ET $303.66 47 $14,271.79 $14,492.95 +$348.50
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2025 10:50am ET $303.82 47 $14,279.54
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2025 12:45pm ET $300.64 47 $14,129.85 $14,343.25 $-149.70
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2025 10:00am ET $353.12 40 $14,124.88
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 10:30am ET $349.09 40 $13,963.60 $14,181.97 $-161.28
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 10:00am ET $364.60 38 $13,854.80
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2025 10:30am ET $365.23 38 $13,878.74 $14,205.91 +$23.94
(+0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2025 10:15am ET $362.83 39 $14,150.37
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 12:00pm ET $359.12 39 $14,005.68 $14,061.22 $-144.69
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2025 12:25pm ET $346.01 40 $13,840.20
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 10:00am ET $342.48 40 $13,699.20 $13,920.22 $-141.00
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 11:40am ET $336.28 41 $13,787.40
🔴 SELL Sep 26, 2025 10:25am ET $332.81 41 $13,645.21 $13,778.04 $-142.18
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
30 🟢 BUY Oct 1, 2025 10:55am ET $330.50 41 $13,550.50
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2025 10:00am ET $339.13 41 $13,904.33 $14,131.87 +$353.83
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
31 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 12:40pm ET $358.95 39 $13,998.86
🔴 SELL Oct 13, 2025 2:50pm ET $355.10 39 $13,848.90 $13,981.92 $-149.95
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
32 🟢 BUY Oct 15, 2025 10:15am ET $356.05 39 $13,885.95
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 1:00pm ET $351.39 39 $13,704.21 $13,800.18 $-181.74
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
33 🟢 BUY Oct 16, 2025 10:20am ET $361.12 38 $13,722.56
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 11:25am ET $356.85 38 $13,560.11 $13,637.73 $-162.45
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
34 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2025 11:20am ET $356.54 38 $13,548.52
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 11:50am ET $359.36 38 $13,655.68 $13,744.89 +$107.16
(+0.8%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
35 🟢 BUY Oct 28, 2025 12:40pm ET $368.64 37 $13,639.68
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 10:00am ET $378.52 37 $14,005.24 $14,110.45 +$365.56
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
36 🟢 BUY Oct 29, 2025 10:30am ET $381.62 36 $13,738.14
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 12:05pm ET $377.51 36 $13,590.36 $13,962.67 $-147.78
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
37 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 10:20am ET $368.55 37 $13,636.50
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 10:55am ET $363.83 37 $13,461.75 $13,787.92 $-174.75
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
38 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 11:15am ET $341.18 40 $13,647.20
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:45am ET $346.85 40 $13,874.00 $14,014.72 +$226.80
(+1.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
39 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET $358.47 39 $13,980.39
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:50am ET $353.50 39 $13,786.50 $13,820.83 $-193.89
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
40 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:30am ET $368.47 37 $13,633.39
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 3:25pm ET $378.08 37 $13,988.96 $14,176.40 +$355.57
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
41 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 11:30am ET $394.79 35 $13,817.65
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 12:00pm ET $400.13 35 $14,004.55 $14,363.30 +$186.90
(+1.4%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
42 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 11:05am ET $403.01 35 $14,105.35
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 11:35am ET $402.01 35 $14,070.35 $14,328.30 $-35.00
(-0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
43 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 1:45pm ET $407.19 35 $14,251.48
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET $397.16 35 $13,900.51 $13,977.33 $-350.97
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
44 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 2:15pm ET $407.54 34 $13,856.19
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET $368.59 34 $12,531.89 $12,653.03 $-1,324.30
(-9.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
45 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 11:05am ET $344.30 36 $12,394.68
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET $350.85 36 $12,630.60 $12,888.95 +$235.92
(+1.9%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
46 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET $352.73 36 $12,698.10
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 10:00am ET $347.04 36 $12,493.55 $12,684.40 $-204.55
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
47 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:20am ET $345.93 36 $12,453.55
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:50am ET $349.34 36 $12,576.24 $12,807.09 +$122.69
(+1.0%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
48 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET $348.78 36 $12,556.08
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $344.91 36 $12,416.76 $12,667.77 $-139.32
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
49 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:20am ET $340.20 37 $12,587.22
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET $349.51 37 $12,931.87 $13,012.43 +$344.66
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
50 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:30pm ET $353.42 36 $12,723.12
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET $355.87 36 $12,811.32 $13,100.63 +$88.20
(+0.7%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
51 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET $332.68 39 $12,974.52
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET $329.07 39 $12,833.54 $12,959.64 $-140.99
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
52 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET $329.05 39 $12,832.95
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $337.65 39 $13,168.35 $13,295.04 +$335.40
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
53 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:15am ET $344.54 38 $13,092.33
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:45am ET $342.51 38 $13,015.19 $13,217.90 $-77.14
(-0.6%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
54 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $326.71 40 $13,068.40
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET $375.73 40 $15,029.20 $15,178.70 +$1,960.80
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
55 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $390.09 38 $14,823.42
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $450.33 38 $17,112.54 $17,467.82 +$2,289.12
(+15.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
47d held
56 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $488.34 35 $17,091.90
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $410.39 35 $14,363.48 $14,739.40 $-2,728.42
(-16.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
57 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $402.68 36 $14,496.66
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $380.40 36 $13,694.58 $13,937.32 $-802.08
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,937.32
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,937.32
Total Return: +39.37%
Back to Surge