MCD Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 50 trades in period
-4.73%
Last Year Return
$10,041.76
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,540.08
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.3/25
Win Rate
3.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
9.5/100
× Confidence 0.73
= 7.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,650
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
258 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,540.08
Current Value
$10,041.76
Period P&L
$-498.31
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
24 /
26
Best Trade
+1.75%
Worst Trade
-2.23%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,018,612.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-498.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-498.31
Gross Return
-4.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.73%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 258 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,540.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 10:55am ET | $314.53 | 33 | $10,379.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 11:25am ET | $315.45 | 33 | $10,409.69 | $10,618.78 |
+$30.36 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 12:10pm ET | $316.47 | 33 | $10,443.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 12:40pm ET | $317.79 | 33 | $10,487.07 | $10,662.34 |
+$43.56 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 10:10am ET | $313.63 | 33 | $10,349.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $314.94 | 33 | $10,393.02 | $10,705.57 |
+$43.23 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 11:05am ET | $315.54 | 33 | $10,412.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 11:35am ET | $320.87 | 33 | $10,588.71 | $10,881.36 |
+$175.79 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 12:20pm ET | $321.35 | 33 | $10,604.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 12:50pm ET | $319.57 | 33 | $10,545.81 | $10,822.62 |
$-58.74 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 1:30pm ET | $313.64 | 34 | $10,663.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 2:00pm ET | $314.07 | 34 | $10,678.38 | $10,837.24 |
+$14.62 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 2:05pm ET | $313.94 | 34 | $10,673.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $308.76 | 34 | $10,497.84 | $10,661.12 |
$-176.12 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 1:50pm ET | $304.77 | 34 | $10,362.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $300.48 | 34 | $10,216.32 | $10,515.43 |
$-145.69 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 10:50am ET | $301.67 | 34 | $10,256.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 11:20am ET | $301.42 | 34 | $10,248.28 | $10,506.93 |
$-8.50 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 3:25pm ET | $289.42 | 36 | $10,418.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 3:55pm ET | $291.42 | 36 | $10,491.12 | $10,579.11 |
+$72.18 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2025 11:10am ET | $289.58 | 36 | $10,424.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 11:40am ET | $292.05 | 36 | $10,513.62 | $10,667.85 |
+$88.74 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 10:35am ET | $296.18 | 36 | $10,662.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2025 10:15am ET | $292.64 | 36 | $10,535.04 | $10,540.59 |
$-127.26 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 10:40am ET | $299.80 | 35 | $10,493.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2025 11:10am ET | $299.39 | 35 | $10,478.65 | $10,526.24 |
$-14.35 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2025 11:30am ET | $301.46 | 34 | $10,249.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2025 12:00pm ET | $300.52 | 34 | $10,217.68 | $10,494.45 |
$-31.79 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2025 2:55pm ET | $298.88 | 35 | $10,460.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 3:25pm ET | $301.63 | 35 | $10,557.05 | $10,590.70 |
+$96.25 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 3:40pm ET | $302.03 | 35 | $10,570.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 10:10am ET | $302.30 | 35 | $10,580.50 | $10,600.33 |
+$9.63 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $305.87 | 34 | $10,399.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $302.16 | 34 | $10,273.44 | $10,474.19 |
$-126.14 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 10:15am ET | $308.33 | 33 | $10,174.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 10:45am ET | $305.74 | 33 | $10,089.42 | $10,388.89 |
$-85.30 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 2:00pm ET | $306.47 | 33 | $10,113.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2025 2:30pm ET | $309.95 | 33 | $10,228.35 | $10,503.73 |
+$114.84 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2025 3:40pm ET | $309.94 | 33 | $10,228.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 10:10am ET | $315.35 | 33 | $10,406.55 | $10,682.26 |
+$178.53 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 2:00pm ET | $313.32 | 34 | $10,652.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $306.34 | 34 | $10,415.39 | $10,444.94 |
$-237.32 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 11:10am ET | $308.20 | 33 | $10,170.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 11:40am ET | $306.99 | 33 | $10,130.51 | $10,404.85 |
$-40.09 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $304.31 | 34 | $10,346.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $301.04 | 34 | $10,235.36 | $10,293.67 |
$-111.18 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 11:45am ET | $303.51 | 33 | $10,015.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 12:15pm ET | $301.17 | 33 | $9,938.61 | $10,216.62 |
$-77.05 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 12:45pm ET | $304.84 | 33 | $10,059.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 1:15pm ET | $302.97 | 33 | $9,998.01 | $10,154.91 |
$-61.71 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:05pm ET | $304.29 | 33 | $10,041.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 10:25am ET | $300.91 | 33 | $9,929.87 | $10,043.20 |
$-111.71 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 10:45am ET | $301.05 | 33 | $9,934.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $296.17 | 33 | $9,773.61 | $9,882.32 |
$-160.88 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 11:35am ET | $297.12 | 33 | $9,804.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 12:05pm ET | $294.72 | 33 | $9,725.60 | $9,802.95 |
$-79.37 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 12:35pm ET | $296.33 | 33 | $9,778.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 1:05pm ET | $300.24 | 33 | $9,907.92 | $9,931.98 |
+$129.03 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 1:10pm ET | $300.36 | 33 | $9,911.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 1:40pm ET | $305.06 | 33 | $10,066.98 | $10,087.08 |
+$155.10 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 1:45pm ET | $305.38 | 33 | $10,077.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 2:15pm ET | $306.75 | 33 | $10,122.63 | $10,132.17 |
+$45.09 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET | $309.93 | 32 | $9,917.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 10:50am ET | $307.76 | 32 | $9,848.32 | $10,062.73 |
$-69.44 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 11:55am ET | $307.94 | 32 | $9,854.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 12:25pm ET | $310.00 | 32 | $9,920.00 | $10,128.65 |
+$65.92 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 12:45pm ET | $304.92 | 33 | $10,062.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 1:15pm ET | $307.60 | 33 | $10,150.64 | $10,216.93 |
+$88.28 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:25am ET | $309.88 | 32 | $9,916.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:55am ET | $307.96 | 32 | $9,854.72 | $10,155.49 |
$-61.44 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:25pm ET | $307.03 | 33 | $10,131.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 1:55pm ET | $308.41 | 33 | $10,177.37 | $10,200.87 |
+$45.38 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 11:40am ET | $313.52 | 32 | $10,032.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 2:25pm ET | $310.20 | 32 | $9,926.40 | $10,094.55 |
$-106.32 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 3:35pm ET | $311.22 | 32 | $9,959.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $314.46 | 32 | $10,062.56 | $10,198.07 |
+$103.52 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET | $314.35 | 32 | $10,059.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 10:55am ET | $317.51 | 32 | $10,160.32 | $10,299.19 |
+$101.12 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 2:45pm ET | $318.46 | 32 | $10,190.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 3:15pm ET | $320.70 | 32 | $10,262.24 | $10,370.71 |
+$71.52 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $318.09 | 32 | $10,178.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $313.71 | 32 | $10,038.72 | $10,230.71 |
$-140.00 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:05am ET | $312.33 | 32 | $9,994.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 2:30pm ET | $310.54 | 32 | $9,937.12 | $10,173.27 |
$-57.44 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $302.12 | 33 | $9,969.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $304.30 | 33 | $10,041.74 | $10,245.05 |
+$71.78 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:45am ET | $307.67 | 33 | $10,153.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $305.60 | 33 | $10,084.64 | $10,176.58 |
$-68.47 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:05pm ET | $307.77 | 33 | $10,156.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $307.00 | 33 | $10,131.00 | $10,151.17 |
$-25.41 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $308.19 | 32 | $9,862.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $310.88 | 32 | $9,948.16 | $10,237.13 |
+$85.96 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET | $316.59 | 32 | $10,130.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $313.08 | 32 | $10,018.56 | $10,124.97 |
$-112.16 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $322.54 | 31 | $9,998.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $322.83 | 31 | $10,007.88 | $10,134.11 |
+$9.14 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $324.25 | 31 | $10,051.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $324.75 | 31 | $10,067.25 | $10,149.61 |
+$15.50 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $327.41 | 30 | $9,822.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $323.82 | 30 | $9,714.45 | $10,041.76 |
$-107.85 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,041.76
Net Profit/Loss:
+$41.76
Total Return:
+0.42%