SPY Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 52 trades in period
+4.65%
Last Year Return
$12,407.45
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$11,856.03
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
31
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.3/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
41.5/100
× Confidence 0.75
= 31.2
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
40,695
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,856.03
Current Value
$12,407.45
Period P&L
$551.42
Max Drawdown
-6.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
28 /
24
Best Trade
+1.77%
Worst Trade
-1.43%
Avg Trade Return
+0.07%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,205,937.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$551.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$551.42
Gross Return
+4.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.65%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,856.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 12:35pm ET | $565.63 | 21 | $11,878.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $558.08 | 21 | $11,719.58 | $11,812.66 |
$-158.60 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 11:20am ET | $561.65 | 21 | $11,794.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 11:50am ET | $559.61 | 21 | $11,751.81 | $11,769.82 |
$-42.84 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 11:40am ET | $569.04 | 20 | $11,380.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 9, 2025 10:35am ET | $563.31 | 20 | $11,266.20 | $11,655.22 |
$-114.60 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 10:10am ET | $587.25 | 19 | $11,157.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $587.01 | 19 | $11,153.19 | $11,650.66 |
$-4.56 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 11:20am ET | $588.29 | 19 | $11,177.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2025 11:50am ET | $591.35 | 19 | $11,235.65 | $11,708.80 |
+$58.14 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 1:30pm ET | $593.34 | 19 | $11,273.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 2:00pm ET | $594.39 | 19 | $11,293.41 | $11,728.75 |
+$19.95 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 2:05pm ET | $594.39 | 19 | $11,293.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 2:35pm ET | $591.46 | 19 | $11,237.74 | $11,673.10 |
$-55.65 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 12:45pm ET | $592.51 | 19 | $11,257.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 1:20pm ET | $586.03 | 19 | $11,134.57 | $11,550.07 |
$-123.03 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 3:10pm ET | $586.19 | 19 | $11,137.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $577.83 | 19 | $10,978.77 | $11,391.33 |
$-158.74 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 1:10pm ET | $580.03 | 19 | $11,020.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 1:40pm ET | $590.31 | 19 | $11,215.89 | $11,586.65 |
+$195.32 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 1:45pm ET | $590.58 | 19 | $11,220.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2025 2:15pm ET | $589.86 | 19 | $11,207.34 | $11,573.06 |
$-13.59 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2025 2:40pm ET | $591.58 | 19 | $11,240.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2025 3:10pm ET | $596.04 | 19 | $11,324.67 | $11,657.70 |
+$84.64 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 3:15pm ET | $596.19 | 19 | $11,327.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 3:45pm ET | $596.53 | 19 | $11,334.07 | $11,664.16 |
+$6.46 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 3:05pm ET | $603.09 | 19 | $11,458.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 3:35pm ET | $600.58 | 19 | $11,411.02 | $11,616.57 |
$-47.59 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $603.49 | 19 | $11,466.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 10:25am ET | $596.77 | 19 | $11,338.63 | $11,488.89 |
$-127.68 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $598.92 | 19 | $11,379.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 2:05pm ET | $607.26 | 19 | $11,537.89 | $11,647.30 |
+$158.41 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 2:55pm ET | $607.31 | 19 | $11,538.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 3:25pm ET | $606.99 | 19 | $11,532.90 | $11,641.41 |
$-5.89 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2025 1:30pm ET | $611.34 | 19 | $11,615.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2025 2:00pm ET | $614.02 | 19 | $11,666.38 | $11,692.33 |
+$50.92 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 12:35pm ET | $619.51 | 18 | $11,151.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $623.08 | 18 | $11,215.44 | $11,756.59 |
+$64.26 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 1:30pm ET | $626.38 | 18 | $11,274.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2025 2:00pm ET | $624.42 | 18 | $11,239.47 | $11,721.31 |
$-35.28 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2025 3:00pm ET | $628.28 | 18 | $11,309.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2025 3:30pm ET | $627.12 | 18 | $11,288.16 | $11,700.43 |
$-20.88 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 3:55pm ET | $634.16 | 18 | $11,414.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $635.47 | 18 | $11,438.46 | $11,724.01 |
+$23.58 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 3:15pm ET | $637.53 | 18 | $11,475.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 3:45pm ET | $636.39 | 18 | $11,454.93 | $11,703.49 |
$-20.52 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 11:25am ET | $631.93 | 18 | $11,374.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 11:55am ET | $631.89 | 18 | $11,374.10 | $11,702.91 |
$-0.58 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2025 12:50pm ET | $641.81 | 18 | $11,552.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 1:20pm ET | $643.52 | 18 | $11,583.36 | $11,733.69 |
+$30.78 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $642.91 | 18 | $11,572.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $644.12 | 18 | $11,594.07 | $11,755.38 |
+$21.69 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $645.13 | 18 | $11,612.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2025 10:25am ET | $645.96 | 18 | $11,627.19 | $11,770.23 |
+$14.85 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 1:50pm ET | $647.35 | 18 | $11,652.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 2:20pm ET | $645.48 | 18 | $11,618.55 | $11,736.48 |
$-33.75 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 3:00pm ET | $657.62 | 17 | $11,179.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 3:30pm ET | $657.73 | 17 | $11,181.41 | $11,738.35 |
+$1.87 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 12:20pm ET | $665.57 | 17 | $11,314.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 12:50pm ET | $665.51 | 17 | $11,313.67 | $11,737.33 |
$-1.02 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:25pm ET | $665.37 | 17 | $11,311.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $668.51 | 17 | $11,364.67 | $11,790.71 |
+$53.38 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 11:45am ET | $672.64 | 17 | $11,434.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:15pm ET | $671.05 | 17 | $11,407.85 | $11,763.68 |
$-27.03 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $659.79 | 17 | $11,216.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:55am ET | $669.02 | 17 | $11,373.34 | $11,920.59 |
+$156.91 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 2:15pm ET | $664.56 | 17 | $11,297.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 2:45pm ET | $671.39 | 17 | $11,413.63 | $12,036.70 |
+$116.11 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 2:55pm ET | $671.66 | 17 | $11,418.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 3:25pm ET | $671.91 | 17 | $11,422.39 | $12,040.87 |
+$4.17 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 3:50pm ET | $685.49 | 17 | $11,653.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 29, 2025 10:20am ET | $688.87 | 17 | $11,710.79 | $12,098.33 |
+$57.46 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:50am ET | $679.70 | 17 | $11,554.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $672.59 | 17 | $11,434.03 | $11,977.54 |
$-120.79 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:40pm ET | $670.02 | 17 | $11,390.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $679.48 | 17 | $11,551.16 | $12,138.36 |
+$160.82 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:15pm ET | $682.96 | 17 | $11,610.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 1:45pm ET | $683.37 | 17 | $11,617.21 | $12,145.24 |
+$6.88 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $670.91 | 18 | $12,076.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET | $669.24 | 18 | $12,046.23 | $12,115.09 |
$-30.15 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET | $658.71 | 18 | $11,856.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $668.01 | 18 | $12,024.18 | $12,282.49 |
+$167.40 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET | $668.19 | 18 | $12,027.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:55pm ET | $673.31 | 18 | $12,119.58 | $12,374.73 |
+$92.24 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 1:00pm ET | $673.55 | 18 | $12,123.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:30pm ET | $680.32 | 18 | $12,245.76 | $12,496.59 |
+$121.86 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:25pm ET | $683.56 | 18 | $12,304.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:55pm ET | $684.31 | 18 | $12,317.49 | $12,510.00 |
+$13.41 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:30pm ET | $685.99 | 18 | $12,347.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 3:00pm ET | $689.05 | 18 | $12,402.81 | $12,565.00 |
+$55.00 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:05pm ET | $688.88 | 18 | $12,399.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $681.72 | 18 | $12,270.96 | $12,436.12 |
$-128.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $694.43 | 17 | $11,805.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:00pm ET | $694.94 | 17 | $11,813.90 | $12,444.70 |
+$8.58 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $685.08 | 18 | $12,331.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:20am ET | $689.82 | 18 | $12,416.76 | $12,530.02 |
+$85.32 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $696.29 | 17 | $11,836.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $689.12 | 17 | $11,715.04 | $12,408.13 |
$-121.89 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $688.68 | 18 | $12,396.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $694.72 | 18 | $12,504.96 | $12,516.85 |
+$108.72 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:05pm ET | $694.87 | 18 | $12,507.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:35pm ET | $693.70 | 18 | $12,486.64 | $12,495.83 |
$-21.02 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $685.96 | 18 | $12,347.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $681.05 | 18 | $12,258.90 | $12,407.45 |
$-88.38 (-0.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,407.45
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,407.45
Total Return:
+24.07%