TLT Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 56 trades in period
+1.63%
Last Year Return
$10,385.07
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,218.17
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
14
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.3/35
Total Return
5.7/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality
18.5/100
× Confidence 0.75
= 13.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,433
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$10,218.17
Current Value
$10,385.07
Period P&L
$166.90
Max Drawdown
-5.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
56
Winners / Losers
28 /
28
Best Trade
+0.99%
Worst Trade
-1.29%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,154,453.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$166.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$166.90
Gross Return
+1.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 56 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,218.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 1:10pm ET | $87.18 | 117 | $10,200.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 1:40pm ET | $88.00 | 117 | $10,296.00 | $10,314.11 |
+$95.94 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 12:00pm ET | $86.13 | 119 | $10,248.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2025 12:30pm ET | $86.38 | 119 | $10,279.22 | $10,344.45 |
+$30.34 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 11:10am ET | $85.54 | 120 | $10,264.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 11:40am ET | $85.40 | 120 | $10,248.00 | $10,327.65 |
$-16.80 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 11:25am ET | $83.98 | 122 | $10,245.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 11:55am ET | $84.76 | 122 | $10,340.11 | $10,422.20 |
+$94.55 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 11:35am ET | $85.66 | 121 | $10,364.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2025 12:05pm ET | $85.13 | 121 | $10,300.73 | $10,358.07 |
$-64.13 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2025 1:00pm ET | $86.23 | 120 | $10,347.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 30, 2025 1:30pm ET | $86.12 | 120 | $10,334.41 | $10,344.88 |
$-13.19 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $86.09 | 120 | $10,330.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 10:40am ET | $86.59 | 120 | $10,390.80 | $10,404.88 |
+$60.00 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 12:40pm ET | $85.54 | 121 | $10,350.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 1:10pm ET | $85.68 | 121 | $10,367.28 | $10,421.82 |
+$16.94 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 1:10pm ET | $86.34 | 120 | $10,360.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 1:40pm ET | $87.14 | 120 | $10,456.20 | $10,517.22 |
+$95.40 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 12:50pm ET | $86.29 | 121 | $10,441.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 1:20pm ET | $86.90 | 121 | $10,514.30 | $10,590.42 |
+$73.20 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 12:25pm ET | $86.52 | 122 | $10,555.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 12:55pm ET | $87.37 | 122 | $10,658.71 | $10,693.69 |
+$103.27 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 1:00pm ET | $87.33 | 122 | $10,653.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 1:30pm ET | $87.45 | 122 | $10,668.29 | $10,708.10 |
+$14.41 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 1:35pm ET | $87.46 | 122 | $10,670.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 2:05pm ET | $87.26 | 122 | $10,645.11 | $10,683.09 |
$-25.01 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 3:00pm ET | $87.39 | 122 | $10,660.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2025 3:30pm ET | $87.76 | 122 | $10,706.11 | $10,728.23 |
+$45.14 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2025 12:05pm ET | $87.94 | 122 | $10,728.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 12:35pm ET | $87.94 | 122 | $10,728.07 | $10,728.23 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2025 1:20pm ET | $88.22 | 121 | $10,674.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 1:50pm ET | $88.02 | 121 | $10,650.42 | $10,704.04 |
$-24.19 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $87.59 | 122 | $10,685.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $86.46 | 122 | $10,548.12 | $10,566.18 |
$-137.86 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 3:55pm ET | $86.04 | 122 | $10,496.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 10:25am ET | $86.50 | 122 | $10,552.39 | $10,621.69 |
+$55.51 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 10:50am ET | $86.66 | 122 | $10,572.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 11:20am ET | $86.09 | 122 | $10,503.35 | $10,552.94 |
$-68.75 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 11:20am ET | $86.14 | 122 | $10,509.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 11:50am ET | $86.00 | 122 | $10,492.00 | $10,535.86 |
$-17.08 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 12:35pm ET | $86.25 | 122 | $10,522.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 1:05pm ET | $85.97 | 122 | $10,487.73 | $10,500.64 |
$-35.22 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 10:30am ET | $86.88 | 120 | $10,425.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2025 11:00am ET | $86.76 | 120 | $10,410.60 | $10,486.24 |
$-14.40 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 10:25am ET | $88.16 | 118 | $10,402.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 10:55am ET | $87.86 | 118 | $10,366.89 | $10,450.84 |
$-35.40 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:15am ET | $87.22 | 119 | $10,379.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 10:45am ET | $86.69 | 119 | $10,315.52 | $10,387.18 |
$-63.66 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 1:50pm ET | $87.02 | 119 | $10,354.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2025 2:20pm ET | $86.63 | 119 | $10,308.38 | $10,340.77 |
$-46.41 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2025 1:40pm ET | $86.58 | 119 | $10,302.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2025 2:10pm ET | $87.17 | 119 | $10,373.23 | $10,411.57 |
+$70.80 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2025 2:45pm ET | $87.23 | 119 | $10,379.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 29, 2025 3:15pm ET | $86.64 | 119 | $10,310.16 | $10,341.96 |
$-69.61 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $86.47 | 119 | $10,289.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 10:40am ET | $86.67 | 119 | $10,313.73 | $10,366.35 |
+$24.39 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2025 2:15pm ET | $89.68 | 115 | $10,313.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2025 2:45pm ET | $89.32 | 115 | $10,271.23 | $10,324.36 |
$-41.99 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2025 12:30pm ET | $89.71 | 115 | $10,316.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2025 1:00pm ET | $90.16 | 115 | $10,368.40 | $10,376.11 |
+$51.75 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 3:05pm ET | $90.45 | 114 | $10,311.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 11:50am ET | $89.53 | 114 | $10,206.12 | $10,270.99 |
$-105.12 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 1:40pm ET | $89.29 | 115 | $10,267.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 2:10pm ET | $88.94 | 115 | $10,227.76 | $10,230.97 |
$-40.02 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 10:40am ET | $89.39 | 114 | $10,189.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 11:10am ET | $89.61 | 114 | $10,214.97 | $10,256.05 |
+$25.08 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 12:55pm ET | $89.66 | 114 | $10,221.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 1:25pm ET | $89.44 | 114 | $10,195.59 | $10,229.86 |
$-26.19 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 11:50am ET | $89.28 | 114 | $10,177.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 12:20pm ET | $89.45 | 114 | $10,196.73 | $10,249.24 |
+$19.38 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $90.30 | 113 | $10,203.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 11:30am ET | $90.05 | 113 | $10,175.09 | $10,220.43 |
$-28.81 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 12:30pm ET | $91.12 | 112 | $10,205.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2025 1:00pm ET | $91.13 | 112 | $10,206.36 | $10,221.35 |
+$0.92 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 12:50pm ET | $91.67 | 111 | $10,175.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 1:20pm ET | $91.99 | 111 | $10,210.89 | $10,256.71 |
+$35.36 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 11:40am ET | $90.94 | 112 | $10,185.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 12:10pm ET | $90.26 | 112 | $10,109.12 | $10,180.55 |
$-76.16 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:25am ET | $89.82 | 113 | $10,149.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $89.41 | 113 | $10,103.33 | $10,134.22 |
$-46.33 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:15pm ET | $90.45 | 112 | $10,129.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 12:45pm ET | $90.17 | 112 | $10,098.48 | $10,102.86 |
$-31.36 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 2:20pm ET | $88.91 | 113 | $10,046.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 2:50pm ET | $89.10 | 113 | $10,067.74 | $10,124.33 |
+$21.47 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 12:20pm ET | $87.79 | 115 | $10,095.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 12:50pm ET | $87.70 | 115 | $10,085.50 | $10,113.98 |
$-10.35 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 10:50am ET | $87.37 | 115 | $10,046.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 11:20am ET | $87.82 | 115 | $10,099.30 | $10,166.30 |
+$52.32 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:50pm ET | $88.07 | 115 | $10,127.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 10:15am ET | $87.91 | 115 | $10,109.08 | $10,147.90 |
$-18.40 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $87.64 | 115 | $10,078.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.58 | 115 | $10,072.05 | $10,141.34 |
$-6.56 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $87.87 | 115 | $10,104.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $87.79 | 115 | $10,095.85 | $10,132.72 |
$-8.62 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $88.43 | 114 | $10,080.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $88.46 | 114 | $10,083.87 | $10,136.14 |
+$3.42 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $86.98 | 116 | $10,089.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $86.86 | 116 | $10,075.76 | $10,122.22 |
$-13.92 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $87.24 | 116 | $10,119.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $87.64 | 116 | $10,165.66 | $10,168.62 |
+$46.40 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:15pm ET | $87.66 | 116 | $10,168.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:45pm ET | $87.93 | 116 | $10,199.30 | $10,199.36 |
+$30.74 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $87.60 | 116 | $10,161.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $87.34 | 116 | $10,130.92 | $10,168.68 |
$-30.68 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $87.25 | 116 | $10,120.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $87.34 | 116 | $10,131.44 | $10,179.70 |
+$11.02 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $87.50 | 116 | $10,150.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 2:45pm ET | $88.38 | 116 | $10,251.50 | $10,280.62 |
+$100.92 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 12:15pm ET | $88.43 | 116 | $10,258.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 12:45pm ET | $88.65 | 116 | $10,283.56 | $10,305.72 |
+$25.10 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 1:00pm ET | $88.95 | 115 | $10,229.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 1:30pm ET | $89.64 | 115 | $10,308.60 | $10,385.07 |
+$79.35 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,385.07
Net Profit/Loss:
+$385.07
Total Return:
+3.85%