VTI Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 54 trades in period
+7.50%
Last Year Return
$12,458.50
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$11,589.84
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
32
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
13.2/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality
42.5/100
× Confidence 0.75
= 31.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,146
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,589.84
Current Value
$12,458.50
Period P&L
$868.66
Max Drawdown
-6.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
28 /
26
Best Trade
+1.81%
Worst Trade
-1.42%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,270,352.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$868.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$868.66
Gross Return
+7.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,589.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 12:35pm ET | $278.38 | 42 | $11,691.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $274.42 | 42 | $11,525.64 | $11,543.22 |
$-166.32 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 11:20am ET | $276.37 | 41 | $11,331.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 11:50am ET | $275.36 | 41 | $11,289.76 | $11,501.81 |
$-41.41 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 11:35am ET | $279.23 | 41 | $11,448.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 9, 2025 12:05pm ET | $277.79 | 41 | $11,389.19 | $11,442.57 |
$-59.24 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 11:15am ET | $289.53 | 39 | $11,291.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 11:45am ET | $289.63 | 39 | $11,295.57 | $11,446.47 |
+$3.90 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 11:35am ET | $289.71 | 39 | $11,298.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 16, 2025 12:05pm ET | $291.40 | 39 | $11,364.60 | $11,512.35 |
+$65.88 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 1:15pm ET | $292.19 | 39 | $11,395.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 1:45pm ET | $292.75 | 39 | $11,417.06 | $11,534.00 |
+$21.65 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 1:50pm ET | $292.63 | 39 | $11,412.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 2:20pm ET | $291.46 | 39 | $11,366.94 | $11,488.37 |
$-45.63 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 3:00pm ET | $288.27 | 39 | $11,242.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $284.37 | 39 | $11,090.43 | $11,336.27 |
$-152.10 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 1:05pm ET | $285.31 | 39 | $11,127.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 1:35pm ET | $290.48 | 39 | $11,328.53 | $11,537.71 |
+$201.44 (+1.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 1:40pm ET | $290.60 | 39 | $11,333.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2025 2:10pm ET | $290.43 | 39 | $11,326.58 | $11,531.08 |
$-6.63 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 3:25pm ET | $290.54 | 39 | $11,331.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $291.41 | 39 | $11,364.99 | $11,565.03 |
+$33.95 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 11:20am ET | $292.79 | 39 | $11,418.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 11:50am ET | $293.96 | 39 | $11,464.44 | $11,610.66 |
+$45.63 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $297.02 | 39 | $11,583.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 13, 2025 10:20am ET | $294.00 | 39 | $11,466.19 | $11,493.01 |
$-117.65 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 1:35pm ET | $295.59 | 38 | $11,232.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 2:05pm ET | $299.88 | 38 | $11,395.44 | $11,655.95 |
+$162.94 (+1.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 2:15pm ET | $299.81 | 38 | $11,392.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 2:45pm ET | $299.13 | 38 | $11,366.78 | $11,629.95 |
$-26.00 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2025 12:30pm ET | $301.54 | 38 | $11,458.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2025 1:00pm ET | $303.85 | 38 | $11,546.30 | $11,717.92 |
+$87.97 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 12:35pm ET | $305.01 | 38 | $11,590.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 10:00am ET | $306.98 | 38 | $11,665.28 | $11,792.86 |
+$74.94 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 1:20pm ET | $308.64 | 38 | $11,728.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2025 1:50pm ET | $307.37 | 38 | $11,680.06 | $11,744.60 |
$-48.26 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2025 3:00pm ET | $309.53 | 37 | $11,452.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2025 3:30pm ET | $308.90 | 37 | $11,429.30 | $11,721.29 |
$-23.31 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 3:50pm ET | $312.16 | 37 | $11,549.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 10:20am ET | $312.65 | 37 | $11,568.05 | $11,739.42 |
+$18.13 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 2:10pm ET | $313.81 | 37 | $11,610.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 2:40pm ET | $313.20 | 37 | $11,588.22 | $11,716.85 |
$-22.57 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 3:20pm ET | $310.33 | 37 | $11,482.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2025 3:50pm ET | $309.30 | 37 | $11,444.10 | $11,678.74 |
$-38.11 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 11:30am ET | $311.05 | 37 | $11,508.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 12:00pm ET | $310.64 | 37 | $11,493.50 | $11,663.38 |
$-15.36 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2025 12:30pm ET | $315.50 | 36 | $11,358.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 1:00pm ET | $316.83 | 36 | $11,405.70 | $11,711.08 |
+$47.70 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $316.82 | 36 | $11,405.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $317.57 | 36 | $11,432.52 | $11,738.08 |
+$27.00 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 3:55pm ET | $318.02 | 36 | $11,448.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2025 10:25am ET | $318.72 | 36 | $11,473.92 | $11,763.28 |
+$25.20 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 1:50pm ET | $319.29 | 36 | $11,494.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 2:20pm ET | $318.70 | 36 | $11,473.20 | $11,742.04 |
$-21.24 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 11:30am ET | $324.65 | 36 | $11,687.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 12:00pm ET | $324.41 | 36 | $11,678.76 | $11,733.25 |
$-8.79 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 10:25am ET | $328.04 | 35 | $11,481.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2025 10:55am ET | $327.44 | 35 | $11,460.23 | $11,712.07 |
$-21.18 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 12:25pm ET | $329.34 | 35 | $11,526.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 12:55pm ET | $329.30 | 35 | $11,525.50 | $11,710.85 |
$-1.22 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:45pm ET | $328.02 | 35 | $11,480.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 2, 2025 10:15am ET | $329.21 | 35 | $11,522.18 | $11,752.33 |
+$41.48 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 11:45am ET | $331.57 | 35 | $11,604.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:15pm ET | $330.78 | 35 | $11,577.30 | $11,724.68 |
$-27.65 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:20am ET | $325.16 | 36 | $11,705.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:50am ET | $330.13 | 36 | $11,884.68 | $11,903.60 |
+$178.92 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 3:10pm ET | $327.77 | 36 | $11,799.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 3:40pm ET | $331.03 | 36 | $11,917.08 | $12,020.96 |
+$117.36 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 3:45pm ET | $331.21 | 36 | $11,923.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:15am ET | $330.75 | 36 | $11,907.00 | $12,004.40 |
$-16.56 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 2:50pm ET | $331.53 | 36 | $11,935.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 24, 2025 3:20pm ET | $334.40 | 36 | $12,038.40 | $12,107.71 |
+$103.31 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:50am ET | $334.09 | 36 | $12,027.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $330.68 | 36 | $11,904.30 | $11,984.77 |
$-122.94 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:50pm ET | $329.45 | 36 | $11,860.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 3:20pm ET | $335.11 | 36 | $12,063.96 | $12,188.53 |
+$203.76 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 3:35pm ET | $335.29 | 36 | $12,070.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $336.55 | 36 | $12,115.80 | $12,234.07 |
+$45.54 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $329.59 | 37 | $12,194.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:10am ET | $328.20 | 37 | $12,143.24 | $12,182.34 |
$-51.73 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET | $323.50 | 37 | $11,969.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $328.22 | 37 | $12,144.14 | $12,356.98 |
+$174.64 (+1.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET | $328.27 | 37 | $12,145.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:55pm ET | $331.27 | 37 | $12,256.99 | $12,467.98 |
+$111.00 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 1:00pm ET | $331.38 | 37 | $12,260.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:30pm ET | $334.80 | 37 | $12,387.60 | $12,594.70 |
+$126.72 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 2:20pm ET | $335.29 | 37 | $12,405.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 11:45am ET | $335.67 | 37 | $12,419.88 | $12,608.85 |
+$14.15 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $336.38 | 37 | $12,446.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:50pm ET | $337.10 | 37 | $12,472.70 | $12,635.49 |
+$26.64 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $337.66 | 37 | $12,493.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 2:35pm ET | $339.70 | 37 | $12,568.90 | $12,710.97 |
+$75.48 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 2:40pm ET | $339.86 | 37 | $12,574.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $336.22 | 37 | $12,440.14 | $12,576.29 |
$-134.68 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $340.93 | 36 | $12,273.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:25pm ET | $340.94 | 36 | $12,273.66 | $12,576.63 |
+$0.34 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $342.85 | 36 | $12,342.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:20pm ET | $343.01 | 36 | $12,348.18 | $12,582.21 |
+$5.58 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $338.97 | 37 | $12,541.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET | $335.57 | 37 | $12,416.09 | $12,456.41 |
$-125.80 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $342.74 | 36 | $12,338.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $341.22 | 36 | $12,283.92 | $12,401.70 |
$-54.71 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $339.78 | 36 | $12,232.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $343.14 | 36 | $12,352.86 | $12,522.48 |
+$120.78 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $343.07 | 36 | $12,350.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $343.04 | 36 | $12,349.26 | $12,521.40 |
$-1.08 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $338.07 | 37 | $12,508.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $336.37 | 37 | $12,445.69 | $12,458.50 |
$-62.90 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,458.50
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,458.50
Total Return:
+24.59%