XLF Surge's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-06-20 to present • 47 trades in period
-2.70%
Last Year Return
$9,238.02
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$9,494.01
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
6.4/100
× Confidence 0.92
= 5.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
30,217
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,494.01
Current Value
$9,238.02
Period P&L
$-255.99
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
20 /
27
Best Trade
+2.00%
Worst Trade
-1.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$884,564.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-255.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$-255.99
Gross Return
-2.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.70%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,494.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 3:00pm ET | $50.68 | 187 | $9,477.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 3:30pm ET | $51.70 | 187 | $9,666.97 | $9,683.82 |
+$189.81 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 3:35pm ET | $51.74 | 187 | $9,675.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2025 10:05am ET | $51.52 | 187 | $9,634.24 | $9,642.81 |
$-41.01 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2025 11:10am ET | $52.09 | 185 | $9,635.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 11:40am ET | $52.31 | 185 | $9,677.35 | $9,684.44 |
+$41.63 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 12:50pm ET | $52.56 | 184 | $9,670.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2025 1:20pm ET | $52.49 | 184 | $9,657.24 | $9,671.56 |
$-12.88 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $52.67 | 183 | $9,637.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2025 11:30am ET | $52.25 | 183 | $9,560.84 | $9,594.70 |
$-76.86 (-0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2025 2:25pm ET | $52.50 | 182 | $9,555.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2025 2:55pm ET | $52.52 | 182 | $9,558.64 | $9,598.34 |
+$3.64 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $52.88 | 181 | $9,571.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2025 11:50am ET | $52.63 | 181 | $9,525.13 | $9,552.18 |
$-46.16 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 1:40pm ET | $52.99 | 180 | $9,537.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 2:10pm ET | $53.34 | 180 | $9,601.20 | $9,616.08 |
+$63.90 (+0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 1:10pm ET | $53.40 | 180 | $9,611.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 1:40pm ET | $53.09 | 180 | $9,556.20 | $9,561.18 |
$-54.90 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 3:35pm ET | $51.87 | 184 | $9,544.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 10:05am ET | $51.95 | 184 | $9,558.80 | $9,575.90 |
+$14.72 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 8, 2025 10:05am ET | $51.91 | 184 | $9,551.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2025 10:35am ET | $51.85 | 184 | $9,539.48 | $9,563.94 |
$-11.96 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2025 10:45am ET | $52.51 | 182 | $9,556.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 11:15am ET | $52.72 | 182 | $9,595.04 | $9,602.16 |
+$38.22 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 2:40pm ET | $52.91 | 181 | $9,576.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2025 3:10pm ET | $52.53 | 181 | $9,507.93 | $9,533.38 |
$-68.78 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 10:30am ET | $52.85 | 180 | $9,513.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 11:00am ET | $52.69 | 180 | $9,484.20 | $9,504.58 |
$-28.80 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $53.39 | 178 | $9,503.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 10:30am ET | $53.37 | 178 | $9,498.97 | $9,500.13 |
$-4.45 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 2:50pm ET | $53.43 | 177 | $9,457.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2025 3:20pm ET | $53.86 | 177 | $9,532.34 | $9,575.35 |
+$75.22 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2025 1:50pm ET | $54.03 | 177 | $9,562.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 10:15am ET | $53.42 | 177 | $9,455.34 | $9,468.27 |
$-107.08 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 11:10am ET | $53.48 | 177 | $9,465.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2025 11:40am ET | $53.11 | 177 | $9,399.62 | $9,402.82 |
$-65.45 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 10:40am ET | $53.84 | 174 | $9,367.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2025 11:10am ET | $53.82 | 174 | $9,363.81 | $9,399.34 |
$-3.48 (-0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 2:00pm ET | $54.29 | 173 | $9,392.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 2:50pm ET | $53.70 | 173 | $9,289.24 | $9,296.40 |
$-102.94 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 10:30am ET | $54.48 | 170 | $9,260.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2025 11:00am ET | $53.98 | 170 | $9,175.75 | $9,211.40 |
$-85.00 (-0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 3, 2025 12:55pm ET | $53.97 | 170 | $9,174.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $53.41 | 170 | $9,079.70 | $9,117.05 |
$-94.35 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $52.77 | 172 | $9,075.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:40am ET | $53.66 | 172 | $9,229.52 | $9,270.99 |
+$153.94 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 2:45pm ET | $52.28 | 177 | $9,253.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 3:15pm ET | $52.85 | 177 | $9,353.57 | $9,371.00 |
+$100.01 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 20, 2025 3:20pm ET | $52.83 | 177 | $9,350.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 3:50pm ET | $52.83 | 177 | $9,350.91 | $9,371.00 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 11:00am ET | $52.81 | 177 | $9,346.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2025 3:50pm ET | $52.25 | 177 | $9,247.37 | $9,271.88 |
$-99.12 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 3:30pm ET | $52.50 | 176 | $9,239.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $51.90 | 176 | $9,133.52 | $9,166.28 |
$-105.60 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $52.46 | 174 | $9,128.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 10:40am ET | $52.49 | 174 | $9,132.41 | $9,170.65 |
+$4.37 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 12:25pm ET | $52.76 | 173 | $9,126.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:20am ET | $52.20 | 173 | $9,029.74 | $9,073.77 |
$-96.88 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:35pm ET | $52.67 | 172 | $9,058.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 3:05pm ET | $53.10 | 172 | $9,132.34 | $9,147.73 |
+$73.96 (+0.8%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:00pm ET | $53.30 | 171 | $9,113.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 1:30pm ET | $53.77 | 171 | $9,193.82 | $9,228.10 |
+$80.37 (+0.9%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET | $51.75 | 178 | $9,210.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET | $51.68 | 178 | $9,198.15 | $9,215.64 |
$-12.46 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 3:30pm ET | $51.97 | 177 | $9,197.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $52.82 | 177 | $9,348.26 | $9,366.09 |
+$150.45 (+1.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET | $53.10 | 176 | $9,344.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET | $53.33 | 176 | $9,386.08 | $9,407.45 |
+$41.36 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 12:35pm ET | $53.44 | 176 | $9,405.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 1:05pm ET | $53.69 | 176 | $9,449.44 | $9,451.45 |
+$44.00 (+0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:15am ET | $53.64 | 176 | $9,440.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:45am ET | $54.71 | 176 | $9,628.08 | $9,638.89 |
+$187.44 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 12:50pm ET | $54.76 | 176 | $9,636.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 1:20pm ET | $54.94 | 176 | $9,669.44 | $9,671.45 |
+$32.56 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $55.32 | 174 | $9,624.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 11:40am ET | $55.41 | 174 | $9,640.47 | $9,687.11 |
+$15.66 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:05pm ET | $55.82 | 173 | $9,656.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:30pm ET | $55.57 | 173 | $9,612.75 | $9,643.86 |
$-43.25 (-0.5%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $56.30 | 171 | $9,627.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $56.20 | 171 | $9,609.35 | $9,625.91 |
$-17.95 (-0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $56.35 | 170 | $9,578.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.73 | 170 | $9,474.10 | $9,521.36 |
$-104.55 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:30pm ET | $56.24 | 169 | $9,504.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $55.84 | 169 | $9,436.12 | $9,452.91 |
$-68.45 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $54.10 | 174 | $9,412.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $53.52 | 174 | $9,312.62 | $9,353.00 |
$-99.91 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $54.00 | 173 | $9,342.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:35pm ET | $53.43 | 173 | $9,243.39 | $9,254.39 |
$-98.61 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $53.99 | 171 | $9,232.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $53.38 | 171 | $9,127.13 | $9,149.22 |
$-105.17 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $51.93 | 176 | $9,139.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.65 | 176 | $9,090.40 | $9,099.94 |
$-49.28 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.24 | 177 | $9,069.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.02 | 177 | $9,207.54 | $9,238.02 |
+$138.08 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
48d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,238.02
Net Profit/Loss:
$-761.98
Total Return:
-7.62%