Compendium › Surge › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-0.31%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,908.74
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$11,945.89
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:47:10

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
10.8/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 25.3/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 18.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,801
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,945.89
Current Value
$11,908.74
Period P&L
$-37.15
Max Drawdown
-15.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+0.49%
Worst Trade
-1.01%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$70,501.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-37.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$-37.15
Gross Return
-0.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,945.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET $378.20 31 $11,724.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:35am ET $374.39 31 $11,606.09 $11,827.78 $-118.11
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $366.72 32 $11,735.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $368.50 32 $11,792.00 $11,884.74 +$56.96
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:05am ET $369.07 32 $11,810.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $369.82 32 $11,834.24 $11,908.74 +$24.00
(+0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,908.74
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,908.74
Total Return: +19.09%
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