Compendium › Surge › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-1.31%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,912.36
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$12,070.70
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:18:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.1/35
Total Return
10.8/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 22.0/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 20.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,854
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,070.70
Current Value
$11,912.36
Period P&L
$-158.34
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+2.69%
Worst Trade
-5.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.27%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$99,136.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-158.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$-158.34
Gross Return
-1.31%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,070.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $69.26 174 $12,051.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $71.12 174 $12,374.88 $12,394.34 +$323.64
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET $71.36 173 $12,345.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $73.26 173 $12,673.98 $12,723.04 +$328.70
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $71.00 179 $12,708.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET $70.11 179 $12,549.69 $12,564.45 $-158.59
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 172 $12,542.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $69.13 172 $11,890.36 $11,912.36 $-652.09
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,912.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,912.36
Total Return: +19.12%
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